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Game Recap
UTA7
FinalThu, Jan 1, 2026Every game that night
NYI2

UTA beat NYI 7-2, with the chances close: 2.68 expected goals to 2.27. D. Guenther scored three for UTA. K. Vejmelka stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA0347
NYI0112
  1. 2nd 0:36UTAD. Guenther0.13 xG
  2. 2nd 2:35NYIC. Ritchie0.15 xG
  3. 2nd 10:20UTAD. Guenther0.11 xG
  4. 2nd 16:19UTAN. Schmaltz0.10 xG
  5. 3rd 2:52UTAM. SergachevPP0.02 xG
  6. 3rd 5:41UTAC. KellerPP0.16 xG
  7. 3rd 11:48NYIM. SchaeferPP0.05 xG
  8. 3rd 13:54UTAD. Guenther0.14 xG
  9. 3rd 16:55UTAN. Schmaltz0.21 xG

Team Stats

UTANYI
21Shots on goal22
2.68Expected goals2.27
56Shot attempts55
105v5 shots on goal14
2/5Power play1/5
16Hits13
14Blocked shots13
10Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways9
3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.68 xGNYI 2.27 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdUTA goal, 0:36NYI goal, 2:35UTA goal, 10:20UTA goal, 16:19UTA goal, 2:52UTA goal, 5:41NYI goal, 11:48UTA goal, 13:54UTA goal, 16:55

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA21 on goal, 7 scored
NYI22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. GuentherRW314300+3015:234:26
N. SchmaltzC213400+2018:073:54
C. KellerRW123310+2216:324:26
L. CrouseLW022002+3016:452:51
B. HaytonC022101+3015:263:27
J. PeterkaRW011011+2015:293:54
K. StenlundC000002-1015:400:38
D. ButLW0000010014:273:39
M. CarconeLW0001200013:182:56
J. McBainC0000700212:580:00
A. KerfootC000200-1412:560:47
L. O'BrienC000130-1011:040:30
M. SergachevD1232000020:364:29
S. DurziD011203+1020:213:37
I. ColeD000212+1219:300:00
N. SchmidtD000001+2018:540:00
J. MarinoD000000+3017:410:00
N. DeSimoneD000011+1015:460:51
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka22202.90960:00Win
V. Vanecek000–0:00

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ShabanovRW0220000015:573:39
J. DrouinLW011200-1017:006:01
C. RitchieC1012010013:532:34
M. BarzalC000201-3017:496:07
E. HeinemanLW000101-2016:575:58
B. HorvatC000211-1016:434:56
S. HolmstromRW000011+1016:262:36
C. CizikasC0002100014:170:17
J. PageauC000001-3013:570:00
M. TsyplakovRW000130-1213:420:08
A. LeeLW000200-2211:582:54
K. MacLeanC0001100011:510:15
M. SchaeferD101300-1224:246:00
M. WarrenD0110110013:300:00
R. PulockD0002000020:440:03
A. PelechD000013-3218:440:23
S. MayfieldD000041-1018:190:00
T. DeAngeloD000202-3016:452:59
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Rittich1495.64345:21Loss
M. Hogberg752.71413:29

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz11:06C. Keller11:54J. Peterka11:15
Line 2A. Kerfoot10:15K. Stenlund10:32L. O'Brien9:44
Line 3B. Hayton11:07D. Guenther10:08L. Crouse9:39
Line 4M. Carcone10:05D. But9:58J. McBain9:14
Pair 1N. Schmidt14:48J. Marino13:31
Pair 2S. Durzi15:08M. Sergachev11:41
Pair 3I. Cole14:00N. DeSimone14:05

NYI

Line 1C. Ritchie11:19M. Shabanov11:28S. Holmstrom10:25
Line 2C. Cizikas10:31K. MacLean10:36M. Tsyplakov12:44
Line 3J. Drouin9:49E. Heineman10:03B. Horvat8:17
Line 4A. Lee9:04J. Pageau9:10M. Barzal10:32
Pair 1S. Mayfield15:25M. Warren11:34
Pair 2R. Pulock14:35M. Schaefer16:00
Pair 3A. Pelech13:42T. DeAngelo12:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamAnders Lee UTA First game back in New York, his team until Apr 20262 SOG
  • Old teamVitek Vanecek NYI First game against UTA since he left (his team until May 2026)0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 2.9, NYI 2.8UTA 7, NYI 2
Total goals5.69
Shots on goalUTA 27.9, NYI 26.6UTA 21, NYI 22
Win chanceUTA 51%UTA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
UTA D. Guenther3.130.75429%3
NYI B. Horvat3.020.83035%0
UTA C. Keller2.830.89330%1
NYI M. Schaefer2.630.57114%1
UTA J. Peterka2.400.75128%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.340.77325%2
NYI M. Barzal2.320.86024%0
NYI A. Lee2.220.55024%0
NYI E. Heineman2.010.53026%0
UTA M. Carcone1.910.40019%0
UTA L. Crouse1.900.42222%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.920.61311%1
NYI T. DeAngelo1.820.4008%0
UTA B. Hayton1.710.36215%0
UTA D. But1.700.20010%0
NYI A. Pelech1.600.2604%0
UTA S. Durzi1.620.4018%0
NYI R. Pulock1.420.3306%0
NYI J. Drouin1.320.64116%0
NYI C. Ritchie1.220.35116%1
UTA J. McBain1.200.28012%0
NYI M. Shabanov1.200.41214%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.100.51021%0
NYI J. Pageau1.100.43015%0
UTA K. Stenlund1.000.25011%0
UTA A. Kerfoot1.020.28010%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.000.2705%0
NYI M. Tsyplakov1.010.2709%0
UTA N. DeSimone1.000.1905%0
NYI S. Mayfield0.900.1604%0
NYI C. Cizikas0.920.25010%0
UTA L. O'Brien0.910.1205%0
NYI M. Warren0.900.1813%0
NYI K. MacLean0.810.1808%0
UTA J. Marino0.800.3204%0
UTA I. Cole0.720.1803%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.