UTA beat NYR 6-5 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.33 expected goals to 3.30. NYR outshot UTA 34 to 26. C. Keller led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Hayton had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Ingram stopped 29 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| NYR | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
- 1st 3:43UTAB. Hayton0.26 xG
- 1st 8:38NYRA. Panarin0.12 xG
- 2nd 1:48UTAJ. McBain0.25 xG
- 2nd 3:51NYRA. PanarinPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 6:02UTAC. Keller0.27 xG
- 2nd 8:38UTAK. Stenlund0.03 xG
- 2nd 9:18NYRK. Miller0.00 xG
- 2nd 13:59UTAD. GuentherPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 17:59NYRB. Schneider0.09 xG
- 3rd 12:56NYRW. Cuylle0.36 xG
- OT 4:05UTAC. Keller0.25 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.33 xGNYR 3.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:09 | 3:56 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:58 | 3:54 |
| B. Hayton | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 3:56 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:45 | 3:56 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:51 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:53 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 15 | 6:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:51 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:51 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:04 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 29:12 | 0:51 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 28:48 | 3:56 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 18:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ingram | 34 | 29 | 5 | .853 | 64:05 | Win |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:17 | 2:01 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 24:56 | 2:01 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:41 | 2:07 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 12:19 | 1:58 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 23:54 | 1:46 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:21 | 1:46 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:01 | 1:58 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 12:57 | 1:58 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 4:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | 0:06 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:34 | 1:46 |
| K. Miller | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 26:59 | 1:58 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:11 |
| B. Schneider | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:39 | 0:10 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:04 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 26 | 20 | 6 | .769 | 64:02 | OT loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.9, NYR 3.6 | UTA 6, NYR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 29.0, NYR 32.0 | UTA 26, NYR 34 |
| Win chance | NYR 61% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.1 | 4 | 1.27 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| UTA C. Keller | 3.0 | 3 | 0.85 | 3 | 30% | 2 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.8 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.7 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.7 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.7 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.5 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.2 | 1 | 0.72 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.1 | 5 | 0.41 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.9 | 4 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.8 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 0 | 0.87 | 3 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.7 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.4 | 3 | 0.26 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.4 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.1 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA V. Kolyachonok | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.