Game Recap: UTA 3, NYR 2 (OT), January 5, 2026

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Game Recap

UTA3

Final/OTMon, Jan 5, 2026Every game that night

NYR2

UTA beat NYR 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.69 expected goals to 3.39. A. Panarin led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). D. Guenther had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. K. Vejmelka stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	0	1	1	1	3
NYR	0	2	0	0	2

2nd 8:29NYRA. LafrenièrePP0.18 xG
2nd 12:38UTAD. Guenther0.02 xG
2nd 16:36NYRV. TrocheckPP0.13 xG
3rd 6:15UTAM. Carcone0.18 xG
OT 1:06UTAS. Durzi0.26 xG

Team Stats

UTANYR

27Shots on goal24

3.69Expected goals3.39

63Shot attempts52

255v5 shots on goal14

0/1Power play2/4

18Hits38

9Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways16

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.69 xGNYR 3.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA26 on goal, 3 scored

NYR24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	19:40	0:53
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:36	0:49
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	6	0	2	+1	2	16:00	1:24
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	13:32	0:49
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:05	0:52
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	15:41	0:51
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	15:21	0:56
D. But	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	13:56	0:31
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	13:25	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:21	0:19
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9:19	0:14
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	7:39	0:06
S. Durzi	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	22:09	1:08
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	21:14	0:16
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	17:52	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	26:48	0:46
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	20:57	0:06
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	24	22	2	.917	61:06	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	2	2	3	0	0	-2	0	24:56	4:49
M. Zibanejad	C	0	2	2	1	2	0	-1	0	24:45	4:49
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	2	3	2	-1	0	21:55	4:49
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	19:40	4:49
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	19:23	0:07
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:41	0:00
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:47	0:07
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	11:56	0:07
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:07	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	7	2	0	0	8:42	0:00
A. Blidh	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	7:56	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	7:18	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	23:30	4:49
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	-1	0	22:39	0:07
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:50	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:39	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	16:27	0:07
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	14:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	9	9	0	1.000	13:00
J. Quick	18	15	3	.833	47:51	OT loss

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz16:00C. Keller17:18L. Crouse14:33

Line 2B. Hayton14:04J. Peterka14:36D. Guenther12:34

Line 3M. Carcone12:43D. But13:25J. McBain13:12

Line 4A. Kerfoot8:16K. Stenlund7:52B. Tanev7:33

Pair 1M. Sergachev19:50S. Durzi19:45

Pair 2J. Marino19:16N. Schmidt18:42

Pair 3I. Cole13:44N. DeSimone10:42

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin17:55M. Zibanejad16:55W. Cuylle17:18

Line 2V. Trocheck14:52A. Lafrenière14:31G. Perreault12:21

Line 3J. Brodzinski11:49T. Raddysh12:51J. Dowling7:18

Line 4A. Blidh7:56M. Rempe8:42S. Carrick9:51

Pair 1V. Gavrikov18:44A. Fox17:06

Pair 2C. Soucy18:47W. Borgen18:02

Pair 3B. Schneider14:45U. Vaakanainen14:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Durzi NYR Faces UTA, his team until May 20261 G, 2 SOG
Old teamVincent Trocheck UTA Faces NYR, his team until Apr 20261 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.9, NYR 2.8	UTA 3, NYR 2
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	UTA 28.0, NYR 24.5	UTA 27, NYR 24
Win chance	UTA 51%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	6	0.77	1	29%	1
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	3	1.17	2	35%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.8	2	0.91	0	29%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	1	0.92	2	30%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	4	0.80	1	25%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.2	3	0.73	0	26%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.1	2	0.89	1	29%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.9	3	0.64	1	24%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	3	0.55	0	22%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.8	1	0.40	1	18%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	1	0.56	0	10%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	0	0.43	1	21%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	3	0.80	0	14%	0
UTA D. But	1.6	0	0.21	0	10%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	0	0.39	0	15%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.6	2	0.41	1	8%	1
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	4	0.35	0	8%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.26	0	7%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.2	1	0.33	0	14%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	2	0.28	0	12%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	0	0.20	0	5%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.1	0	0.31	0	13%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.0	2	0.26	0	5%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	0	0.26	0	12%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	0	0.29	0	10%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.0	1	0.18	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
NYR G. Perreault	0.9	0	0.30	0	12%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.16	0	6%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.30	1	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.18	1	3%	0
NYR J. Dowling	0.7	1	0.16	0	8%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	2	0.14	0	7%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.6	0	0.15	0	2%	0
NYR A. Blidh	0.5	1	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.