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Game Recap
UTA2
FinalSun, Oct 4, 2026Every game that night
NYR4

NYR beat UTA 4-2, with the chances close: 3.72 expected goals to 3.16. UTA outshot NYR 30 to 22. V. Gavrikov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Crouse had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. I. Shesterkin stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA0112
NYR1034
  1. 1st 17:18NYRV. Gavrikov0.03 xG
  2. 2nd 14:29UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.16 xG
  3. 3rd 3:15NYRG. Perreault0.13 xG
  4. 3rd 12:47NYRJ. Miller0.13 xG
  5. 3rd 14:57UTAA. Peeke0.08 xG
  6. 3rd 18:45NYRE. TolvanenEN0.52 xG

Team Stats

UTANYR
30Shots on goal22
3.16Expected goals3.72
67Shot attempts55
265v5 shots on goal18
1/2Power play0/4
29Hits23
17Blocked shots23
17Penalty minutes13
13Giveaways15
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.16 xGNYR 3.72 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdNYR goal, 17:18UTA goal, 14:29NYR goal, 3:15NYR goal, 12:47UTA goal, 14:57NYR goal, 18:45

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA28 on goal, 2 scored
NYR22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. KellerRW011200-2018:031:52
N. SchmaltzC101300-3217:181:52
A. LeeLW0111030012:590:38
L. CooleyC000030-1018:281:50
V. TrocheckC000230-3017:580:36
D. GuentherRW000200-1015:451:50
L. CrouseLW0005400015:200:00
B. HaytonC0001000213:180:00
K. StenlundC0000020013:100:00
M. CarconeLW000210-1012:430:36
J. McBainC0002400511:140:00
D. ButLW0000100010:260:38
A. PeekeD1013200014:040:00
M. SergachevD0003030423:511:07
N. SchmidtD000331-2022:390:00
M. WeegarD0000650422:000:00
J. MarinoD000102-2021:071:21
D. SimashevD000021-1012:450:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka21183.85758:40Loss
S. Cossa000–0:00

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ZibanejadC011001+1024:324:50
A. LafrenièreLW011431+1021:444:25
J. MillerC101111+1020:273:57
G. PerreaultRW101101+1018:181:22
T. KartyeLW011220+1015:180:00
E. TolvanenRW101202+1014:150:55
W. CuylleLW011211+11114:061:37
P. DorofeyevRW000300+1017:574:43
N. LabaC000121+1017:370:17
O. BjorkstrandRW000011007:490:33
J. ChmelarRW000040006:050:00
J. VelenoC000100002:130:00
V. GavrikovD112314+2019:090:06
A. FoxD011122+3021:355:06
S. DurziD000023+1022:571:17
B. SchneiderD0000210017:420:00
M. PetterssonD000022+1217:380:25
A. SmitsD000102-1016:120:12
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Shesterkin30282.93359:58Win
D. Garand000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1V. Trocheck14:06C. Keller14:16N. Schmaltz12:45
Line 2D. Guenther12:50L. Cooley14:32A. Lee12:21
Line 3L. Crouse12:34B. Hayton12:08J. McBain10:45
Line 4M. Carcone12:05K. Stenlund9:38D. But9:46
Pair 1N. Schmidt19:11J. Marino19:03
Pair 2M. Weegar19:46M. Sergachev17:51
Pair 3D. Simashev10:50A. Peeke11:38

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad17:47G. Perreault16:45A. Lafrenière16:11
Line 2J. Miller14:44T. Kartye14:13P. Dorofeyev12:29
Line 3E. Tolvanen12:27N. Laba16:10W. Cuylle11:40
Line 4O. Bjorkstrand7:16J. Chmelar6:05J. Veleno1:21
Pair 1M. Pettersson16:00S. Durzi17:44
Pair 2V. Gavrikov16:57A. Fox15:50
Pair 3A. Smits16:00B. Schneider16:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
UTA C. Keller2.5+105-1142Under
UTA D. Guenther2.5-145+1202Under
NYR M. Zibanejad2.5+105-1150Under
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+120-1443Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.5-115+1143Over
NYR A. Fox1.5-114-1051Under
NYR A. Lafrenière1.5-185+1504Over
UTA A. Lee1.5-165+1401Under
NYR E. Tolvanen1.5+100-1302Over
NYR G. Perreault1.5+115-1201Under
NYR J. Miller1.5-135+1301Under
UTA L. Cooley1.5-130+1100Under
UTA L. Crouse1.5-135-1105Over
UTA M. Sergachev1.5-140+1123Over
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.5+100-1250Under
UTA V. Trocheck1.5-140+1052Over
NYR W. Cuylle1.5-118+1002Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamSean Durzi NYR Faces UTA, his team until May 20260 SOG
  • Old teamVincent Trocheck UTA Faces NYR, his team until Apr 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 2.9, NYR 3.1UTA 2, NYR 4
Total goals6.16
Shots on goalUTA 26.7, NYR 25.2UTA 30, NYR 22
Win chanceNYR 54%NYR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
UTA D. Guenther3.020.83031%0
UTA C. Keller2.720.97127%0
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.630.68032%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.530.79126%1
NYR M. Zibanejad2.400.91130%0
UTA A. Lee2.110.44120%0
UTA L. Cooley2.000.73027%0
NYR A. Lafrenière2.040.69126%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.930.5909%0
UTA L. Crouse1.850.49022%0
NYR J. Miller1.810.80125%1
UTA M. Carcone1.720.38018%0
UTA M. Weegar1.700.3507%0
NYR W. Cuylle1.720.43119%0
UTA V. Trocheck1.620.62020%0
NYR A. Fox1.510.80111%0
NYR E. Tolvanen1.520.41118%1
UTA B. Hayton1.510.32013%0
NYR G. Perreault1.410.50119%1
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.300.39016%0
NYR V. Gavrikov1.330.3628%1
NYR S. Durzi1.300.3907%0
NYR T. Kartye1.220.43117%0
UTA D. But1.200.23011%0
NYR B. Schneider1.100.2204%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.130.2505%0
UTA J. McBain1.120.27010%0
UTA A. Peeke1.030.1613%1
NYR N. Laba1.010.34013%0
NYR J. Chmelar0.900.24013%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.900.24010%0
NYR M. Pettersson0.900.2804%0
UTA D. Simashev0.900.0902%0
NYR J. Veleno0.810.1809%0
UTA J. Marino0.710.3204%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.