Game Recap: UTA 1, OTT 3, January 26, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA1

FinalSun, Jan 26, 2025Every game that night

OTT3

OTT beat UTA 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.94 expected goals to 2.15. UTA outshot OTT 35 to 27. C. Giroux led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Cooley had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. L. Meriläinen stopped 34 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	1	0	1
OTT	0	1	2	3

2nd 12:16OTTR. GreigSH0.13 xG
2nd 13:52UTAC. Keller0.02 xG
3rd 7:33OTTC. Giroux0.09 xG
3rd 13:22OTTB. Tkachuk0.42 xG

Team Stats

UTAOTT

35Shots on goal27

2.15Expected goals2.94

64Shot attempts44

265v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play0/3

18Hits18

8Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes6

23Giveaways14

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.15 xGOTT 2.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA32 on goal, 1 scored

OTT26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	19:52	3:05
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	2	20:11	2:48
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	18:16	2:45
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:03	1:31
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:33	2:01
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:22	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:14	1:48
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	14:59	0:00
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	12:43	2:28
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	12:35	1:51
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	12:34	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	8:51	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	22:05	2:16
O. Maatta	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	0	18:54	0:07
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	23:16	0:03
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	20:39	2:17
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:47	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	27	24	3	.889	57:36	Loss
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Giroux	RW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	19:48	2:40
T. Stützle	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	18:37	3:16
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	19:28	0:59
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	4	2	1	+2	0	16:53	3:32
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:48	0:17
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	2	16:41	1:26
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:35	2:57
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	13:51	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:28	1:04
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	10:44	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:58	1:17
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:45	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	+1	0	25:14	0:14
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	+1	0	24:04	3:11
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	22:10	1:37
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	19:13	0:30
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:53	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	35	34	1	.971	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.0, OTT 2.8	UTA 1, OTT 3
Total goals	5.8	4
Shots on goal	UTA 26.3, OTT 28.9	UTA 35, OTT 27
Win chance	UTA 53%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.7	4	0.81	1	32%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.3	5	0.95	1	31%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.3	6	0.82	0	28%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	2	0.52	1	22%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	2	0.75	0	26%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	1	0.50	0	10%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.0	2	0.83	2	26%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.0	3	0.79	0	25%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	4	0.46	1	7%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.8	1	0.65	2	22%	1
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.7	1	0.36	0	17%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.7	0	0.38	0	8%	0
OTT J. Norris	1.6	0	0.51	0	26%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.6	0	0.49	0	20%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	0	0.44	0	18%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	3	0.44	0	17%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	0	0.36	0	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	2	0.36	1	17%	1
UTA M. Maccelli	1.4	3	0.48	0	15%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.4	0	0.19	0	5%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.2	3	0.27	1	7%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	1	0.35	0	17%	0
OTT M. Highmore	1.1	3	0.26	0	10%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.1	0	0.07	0	3%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	0	0.21	0	13%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	1	0.37	0	13%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	1	0.13	0	4%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.0	1	0.25	0	13%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	3	0.34	0	15%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	2	0.16	0	7%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.9	1	0.24	0	5%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.9	3	0.26	1	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.9	1	0.23	0	4%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	0.8	1	0.21	0	4%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	2	0.30	1	4%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	0	0.13	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.