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Game Recap
UTA2
OTT4
OTT beat UTA 4-2, with the chances close: 3.48 expected goals to 2.78. UTA outshot OTT 32 to 21. C. Keller led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Keller had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Ersson stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| OTT | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
- 1st 5:27OTTF. ZetterlundPP0.06 xG
- 1st 9:57UTAC. Keller0.31 xG
- 3rd 6:29OTTM. Amadio0.13 xG
- 3rd 9:53UTAB. Hayton0.07 xG
- 3rd 17:42OTTN. Cousins0.04 xG
- 3rd 19:44OTTS. PintoEN0.96 xG
Team Stats
UTAOTT
32Shots on goal21
2.78Expected goals3.48
60Shot attempts59
255v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play1/2
23Hits40
14Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes4
27Giveaways22
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.78 xGOTT 3.48 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:34 | 1:50 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:28 |
| B. Hayton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:33 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:18 | 1:55 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:28 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:40 | 1:55 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:10 | 1:51 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:28 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 20:41 | 0:23 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 25:52 | 1:41 |
| D. Simashev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Duda | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:23 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 58:07 | Loss |
| S. Cossa | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Pinto | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:55 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:19 | 1:31 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:58 | 1:31 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:54 |
| N. Cousins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| S. Halliday | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:52 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:52 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 1:28 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:29 |
| S. Blais | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 8:17 | 0:00 |
| H. Hodgson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:30 | 0:56 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 | 1:27 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1V. Trocheck15:41L. Cooley16:28L. Crouse14:47
Line 3D. Guenther11:26N. Schmaltz11:30J. McBain10:57
Line 4K. Stenlund12:00M. Carcone11:01L. O'Brien10:35
Pair 1M. Weegar19:14M. Sergachev20:01
Pair 2D. Simashev20:16A. Peeke18:26
Pair 3A. Duda13:23N. DeSimone12:12
OTT
Line 1N. Cousins14:42F. Zetterlund14:52S. Pinto14:33
Line 2C. Giroux15:19M. Amadio14:25T. Stützle17:10
Line 3D. Batherson14:34P. Tomasino10:14D. Cozens13:18
Line 4S. Halliday12:08S. Blais8:17H. Hodgson5:40
Pair 2J. Sanderson16:11A. Zub16:16
Pair 3N. Matinpalo15:56T. Kleven14:44
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
9 of 22 overs hit (41%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | +125 | -140 | 6 | Over |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.5 | +154 | -185 | 1 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.5 | +125 | -138 | 2 | Under |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.5 | -130 | +110 | 0 | Under |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.5 | +140 | -175 | 1 | Under |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.5 | +146 | -184 | 1 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.5 | +130 | -145 | 3 | Over |
| UTA A. Lee | 1.5 | -135 | +110 | 1 | Under |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.5 | -120 | +105 | 3 | Over |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.5 | -125 | +115 | 1 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.5 | -170 | +135 | 1 | Under |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.5 | -170 | +135 | 1 | Under |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.5 | -160 | +128 | 2 | Over |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | -110 | – | 0 | Under |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.5 | -105 | – | 2 | Over |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | -105 | – | 2 | Over |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.5 | -148 | +135 | 5 | Over |
| UTA M. Weegar | 1.5 | -120 | +105 | 2 | Over |
| OTT P. Tomasino | 1.5 | +115 | -130 | 1 | Under |
| OTT S. Halliday | 1.5 | -120 | – | 1 | Under |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.5 | -113 | -115 | 2 | Over |
| UTA V. Trocheck | 1.5 | +100 | -110 | 1 | Under |
6 of 36 overs hit (17%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA A. Duda | 0.5 | +1100 | -5000 | 0 | Under |
| UTA A. Lee | 0.5 | +360 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| UTA A. Peeke | 0.5 | +1900 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| OTT A. Zub | 0.5 | +1500 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| UTA B. Hayton | 0.5 | +380 | -650 | 1 | Over |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | +290 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| UTA C. Keller | 0.5 | +220 | -240 | 1 | Over |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | +175 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | +290 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| UTA D. Guenther | 0.5 | +175 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| UTA D. Simashev | 0.5 | +1200 | – | 0 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 0.5 | +340 | -370 | 1 | Over |
| OTT H. Hodgson | 0.5 | +1000 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.5 | +600 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 0.5 | +500 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| OTT J. Spence | 0.5 | +1100 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.5 | +950 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| UTA L. Cooley | 0.5 | +175 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| UTA L. Crouse | 0.5 | +480 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 0.5 | +1000 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| OTT M. Amadio | 0.5 | +500 | -700 | 1 | Over |
| UTA M. Carcone | 0.5 | +550 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 0.5 | +450 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| UTA M. Weegar | 0.5 | +750 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| OTT N. Cousins | 0.5 | +500 | -900 | 1 | Over |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 0.5 | +1900 | -5000 | 0 | Under |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.5 | +1500 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 0.5 | +200 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| OTT P. Tomasino | 0.5 | +525 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Blais | 0.5 | +1000 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Halliday | 0.5 | +480 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +280 | -400 | 1 | Over |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +800 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.5 | +1500 | – | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | +185 | -230 | 0 | Under |
| UTA V. Trocheck | 0.5 | +380 | -550 | 0 | Under |
8 of 20 overs hit (40%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA A. Lee | 0.5 | +300 | -425 | 1 | Over |
| UTA B. Hayton | 0.5 | +215 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | +150 | -160 | 1 | Over |
| UTA C. Keller | 0.5 | -115 | -105 | 1 | Over |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | +146 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | +165 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| UTA D. Guenther | 0.5 | +140 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 0.5 | +305 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.5 | +425 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 0.5 | +110 | -125 | 0 | Under |
| UTA L. Cooley | 0.5 | +136 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| UTA L. Crouse | 0.5 | +400 | -560 | 0 | Under |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 0.5 | -113 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| UTA M. Weegar | 0.5 | +210 | -240 | 1 | Over |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 0.5 | +130 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| OTT P. Tomasino | 0.5 | +360 | -525 | 1 | Over |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +225 | -295 | 1 | Over |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +176 | -205 | 1 | Over |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | -115 | -105 | 1 | Over |
| UTA V. Trocheck | 0.5 | +200 | -220 | 0 | Under |
10 of 20 overs hit (50%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA A. Lee | 0.5 | +145 | -180 | 1 | Over |
| UTA B. Hayton | 0.5 | +140 | -155 | 1 | Over |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | -120 | +105 | 1 | Over |
| UTA C. Keller | 0.5 | -210 | +180 | 2 | Over |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | -166 | +140 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | -115 | -110 | 0 | Under |
| UTA D. Guenther | 0.5 | -155 | +127 | 0 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 0.5 | +140 | -160 | 1 | Over |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.5 | +235 | -280 | 0 | Under |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 0.5 | -130 | +115 | 0 | Under |
| UTA L. Cooley | 0.5 | -160 | +135 | 0 | Under |
| UTA L. Crouse | 0.5 | +205 | -280 | 0 | Under |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 0.5 | -160 | +130 | 0 | Under |
| UTA M. Weegar | 0.5 | +165 | -200 | 1 | Over |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 0.5 | -160 | +135 | 0 | Under |
| OTT P. Tomasino | 0.5 | +200 | -260 | 1 | Over |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +110 | -132 | 2 | Over |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +134 | -150 | 1 | Over |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | -220 | +180 | 1 | Over |
| UTA V. Trocheck | 0.5 | +115 | -125 | 0 | Under |
2 of 19 overs hit (11%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA A. Lee | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| UTA B. Hayton | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | +190 | -290 | 0 | Under |
| UTA C. Keller | 0.5 | +170 | -180 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | +200 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | +280 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| UTA D. Guenther | 0.5 | +150 | -225 | 0 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 0.5 | +525 | -1000 | 1 | Over |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 0.5 | +275 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| UTA L. Cooley | 0.5 | +210 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| UTA M. Carcone | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 0.5 | +200 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| UTA M. Weegar | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 0.5 | +270 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Halliday | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 1 | Over |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +500 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +475 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | +200 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| UTA V. Trocheck | 0.5 | +450 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
1 of 1 overs hit (100%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT S. Ersson | 24.5 | +107 | -125 | 30 | Over |
2 of 5 overs hit (40%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | BLK | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.5 | +135 | -185 | 1 | Under |
| UTA M. Weegar | 2.5 | +110 | -155 | 3 | Over |
| UTA A. Peeke | 1.5 | -105 | -135 | 1 | Under |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.5 | -165 | +115 | 1 | Under |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.5 | -110 | -130 | 3 | Over |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.5, OTT 3.3 | UTA 2, OTT 4 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 26.0, OTT 27.4 | UTA 32, OTT 21 |
| Win chance | UTA 53% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.5 | 0 | 0.87 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 6 | 1.08 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.3 | 3 | 1.13 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.2 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA A. Lee | 2.1 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 1 | 0.68 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.9 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.8 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 5 | 0.78 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| UTA M. Weegar | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.6 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA V. Trocheck | 1.5 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT S. Halliday | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| UTA D. Simashev | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA A. Peeke | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.8 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.7 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT H. Hodgson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.