Game Recap: UTA 2, SEA 5, December 30, 2024

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Game Recap

UTA2

FinalMon, Dec 30, 2024Every game that night

SEA5

SEA beat UTA 5-2, with the chances close: 3.50 expected goals to 2.99. J. Schwartz led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Kakko had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. P. Grubauer stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	1	1	0	2
SEA	2	0	3	5

1st 8:41UTAL. CooleyPP0.12 xG
1st 18:06SEAY. Gourde0.22 xG
1st 18:57SEAA. Burakovsky0.09 xG
2nd 19:01UTAA. Kerfoot0.17 xG
3rd 7:22SEAJ. Schwartz0.25 xG
3rd 11:09SEAM. Beniers0.01 xG
3rd 18:12SEAJ. McCannEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

UTASEA

30Shots on goal33

2.99Expected goals3.50

84Shot attempts60

285v5 shots on goal29

1/1Power play0/2

9Hits24

12Blocked shots23

8Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways21

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.99 xGSEA 3.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA30 on goal, 2 scored

SEA32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-3	0	20:54	0:36
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-2	0	19:47	0:36
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-2	2	16:49	0:36
A. Kerfoot	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	15:01	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	12:41	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	16:28	0:00
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	14:51	0:36
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	14:30	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	13:54	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	11:59	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	11:53	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	10:48	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	21:03	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-4	2	24:26	0:36
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	0	0	21:30	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	18:54	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	18:48	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	32	28	4	.875	58:28	Loss
J. Stauber	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Schwartz	LW	1	2	3	3	1	0	+3	0	17:17	1:40
K. Kakko	RW	0	2	2	5	1	0	+1	0	16:56	2:20
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	17:32	2:26
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	17:06	2:25
Y. Gourde	C	1	0	1	3	5	1	0	0	15:40	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	0	13:34	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:41	1:34
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	2	17:27	1:35
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	2	15:08	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	14:27	2:13
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:41	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:24	1:37
R. Evans	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	+2	0	24:09	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	3	3	1	+4	0	21:42	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	2	19:02	1:44
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	+1	0	24:57	2:16
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	14:13	0:10
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
A. Stezka	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrandon Tanev UTA Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.2, SEA 3.2	UTA 2, SEA 5
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	UTA 27.1, SEA 28.6	UTA 30, SEA 33
Win chance	UTA 50%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA B. Montour	2.5	0	0.55	0	14%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.4	3	0.75	1	31%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.3	4	0.92	1	30%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.2	0	0.75	0	27%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.0	3	0.55	3	23%	1
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.0	1	0.66	1	24%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	3	0.73	1	22%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.9	0	0.78	1	23%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	1	0.62	1	13%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	2	0.65	0	12%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.5	4	0.53	1	20%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	3	0.42	0	18%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.5	1	0.46	1	17%	1
UTA M. Carcone	1.4	3	0.34	1	18%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.4	4	0.34	0	8%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	5	0.38	2	17%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.4	1	0.34	0	16%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.4	0	0.39	0	15%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.3	3	0.47	1	16%	1
UTA L. Crouse	1.3	1	0.35	0	17%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.3	0	0.33	0	15%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	3	0.20	1	5%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.2	2	0.49	0	14%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	0	0.23	0	13%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	1	0.51	0	21%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	1	0.67	0	20%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	2	0.38	1	12%	1
SEA R. Evans	1.0	2	0.33	1	6%	0
UTA I. Cole	1.0	0	0.21	1	4%	0
UTA J. McBain	0.9	2	0.39	0	15%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.9	1	0.21	0	11%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	0.9	2	0.22	0	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.8	4	0.24	0	5%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	1	0.17	0	3%	0
UTA V. Kolyachonok	0.5	0	0.15	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.