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Game Recap
UTA2
SEA4
SEA beat UTA 4-2, with the chances close: 3.55 expected goals to 3.11. E. Tolvanen led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). P. Grubauer stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| SEA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 0:51SEAE. Tolvanen0.02 xG
- 1st 16:48UTAN. Schmaltz0.10 xG
- 2nd 7:35UTAK. Stenlund0.20 xG
- 2nd 18:54SEAB. Montour0.15 xG
- 3rd 10:29SEAK. Kakko0.08 xG
- 3rd 18:51SEAE. TolvanenEN0.88 xG
Team Stats
UTASEA
25Shots on goal23
3.11Expected goals3.55
62Shot attempts51
225v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play0/3
18Hits32
11Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes4
22Giveaways17
7Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.11 xGSEA 3.55 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:40 | 3:49 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:57 | 2:51 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:19 | 3:53 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 17:06 | 1:09 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:02 | 3:45 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:11 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:15 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:07 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:53 | 3:25 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:35 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 58:43 | Loss |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:50 | 3:30 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:57 | 3:10 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:12 | 2:41 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:57 | 3:14 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:51 | 2:25 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 2:37 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:12 | 2:48 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 3:21 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:06 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 23:17 | 3:33 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:55 | 2:28 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:07 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.1, SEA 3.0 | UTA 2, SEA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 28.3, SEA 27.7 | UTA 25, SEA 23 |
| Win chance | UTA 52% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.0 | 3 | 0.89 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.6 | 1 | 1.08 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.5 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.2 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.1 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.1 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 2 | 0.49 | 3 | 22% | 2 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.7 | 0 | 0.58 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.5 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.4 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 2 | 0.30 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.