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Game Recap
UTA3
FinalThu, Oct 22, 2026Every game that night
SEA5

SEA beat UTA 5-3, with the chances close: 2.82 expected goals to 2.56. UTA outshot SEA 36 to 23. L. Cooley led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Weegar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. P. Grubauer stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA1023
SEA2125
  1. 1st 3:38SEAJ. Eberle0.02 xG
  2. 1st 17:57UTAV. TrocheckPP0.12 xG
  3. 1st 18:23SEAM. BeniersPP0.18 xG
  4. 2nd 2:23SEAB. MontourPP0.16 xG
  5. 3rd 0:27UTAL. CooleyPP0.25 xG
  6. 3rd 7:42UTAL. Cooley0.06 xG
  7. 3rd 14:35SEAM. Samoskevich0.15 xG
  8. 3rd 19:00SEAF. GaudreauEN0.83 xG

Team Stats

UTASEA
36Shots on goal23
2.56Expected goals2.82
69Shot attempts49
295v5 shots on goal15
2/3Power play2/4
30Hits14
12Blocked shots18
8Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways15
3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.56 xGSEA 2.82 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdSEA goal, 3:38UTA goal, 17:57SEA goal, 18:23SEA goal, 2:23UTA goal, 0:27UTA goal, 7:42SEA goal, 14:35SEA goal, 19:00

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA35 on goal, 3 scored
SEA25 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CooleyC202210-1017:254:05
C. KellerRW011201-2020:094:09
V. TrocheckC101460-1017:390:36
K. YamamotoRW0114100213:440:37
D. GuentherRW000201-1020:104:03
N. SchmaltzC000110-2017:494:06
B. HaytonC0003120014:300:33
K. StenlundC0001100213:160:00
L. CrouseLW000221-1212:520:00
J. McBainC0001900212:160:00
A. LeeLW0001320012:050:34
D. ButLW000210009:340:00
M. SergachevD022201-1026:584:06
M. WeegarD0116220022:360:41
N. SchmidtD0000000020:130:01
A. PeekeD000101-1019:480:00
D. SimashevD000121-1014:260:00
N. DeSimoneD0001000010:220:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka22184.81858:14Loss
S. Cossa000–0:00

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. EberleRW112511+1018:192:45
M. BeniersC101101+1018:422:57
B. McMannC011120+2017:022:36
F. GaudreauC1011010015:250:00
B. CattonC0110000014:263:08
K. KakkoRW0111100013:222:28
M. SamoskevichRW101301+1012:441:51
J. McCannLW000100+1216:423:06
C. StephensonC000000+2016:372:37
B. MeyersC000012-1013:070:00
R. WintertonC000210-1011:580:00
S. WrightC0001010011:340:50
B. MontourD112222+2026:382:59
V. DunnD0111020025:533:07
R. EvansD011122+2022:330:10
A. LarssonD0000310222:260:11
J. MahuraD0001030210:180:00
V. OttavainenD000211007:510:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Grubauer36333.91759:41Win
J. Daccord000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1V. Trocheck13:57D. Guenther15:01C. Keller14:56
Line 2K. Yamamoto12:04B. Hayton12:06A. Lee10:28
Line 3J. McBain11:19K. Stenlund11:08D. But9:34
Line 4N. Schmaltz10:38L. Crouse10:11L. Cooley10:46
Pair 1M. Weegar18:41M. Sergachev18:42
Pair 2N. Schmidt16:41A. Peeke16:42
Pair 3N. DeSimone10:05D. Simashev13:41

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle14:43M. Beniers13:56J. McCann12:08
Line 2C. Stephenson12:21B. McMann13:25M. Samoskevich10:46
Line 3F. Gaudreau11:14R. Winterton10:39B. Meyers9:54
Line 4K. Kakko10:42B. Catton11:01S. Wright10:40
Pair 1A. Larsson20:06V. Dunn19:26
Pair 2B. Montour19:54R. Evans18:45
Pair 3J. Mahura9:09V. Ottavainen7:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 19 overs hit (37%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
SEA B. McMann2.5+118-1501Under
SEA B. Montour2.5+120-1552Under
UTA C. Keller2.5+110-1352Under
UTA D. Guenther2.5-132+1202Under
UTA L. Cooley2.5+160-1802Under
UTA M. Sergachev2.5+154-1802Under
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+114-1351Under
UTA A. Lee1.5-170+1351Under
UTA A. Peeke1.5+175-2351Under
UTA B. Hayton1.5-111+1003Over
SEA J. Eberle1.5-125+1055Over
SEA J. McCann1.5-165+1501Under
UTA L. Crouse1.5-125+1052Over
SEA M. Beniers1.5+116-1401Under
SEA M. Samoskevich1.5-120+1103Over
UTA M. Weegar1.5-160+1256Over
SEA R. Winterton1.5+120-1552Over
SEA V. Dunn1.5-160+1401Under
UTA V. Trocheck1.5+115-1354Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.4, SEA 3.0UTA 3, SEA 5
Total goals6.38
Shots on goalUTA 28.9, SEA 25.1UTA 36, SEA 23
Win chanceUTA 56%SEA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
UTA D. Guenther2.820.84031%0
SEA B. Montour2.520.54214%1
UTA C. Keller2.521.00129%0
SEA B. McMann2.410.59127%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.310.85028%0
SEA J. McCann2.210.74028%0
SEA V. Dunn2.110.61112%0
UTA A. Lee2.010.46021%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.920.69211%0
UTA L. Cooley1.920.82229%2
SEA M. Samoskevich1.930.45119%1
UTA M. Weegar1.860.4018%0
SEA J. Eberle1.750.62223%1
UTA L. Crouse1.720.48022%0
UTA B. Hayton1.630.39015%0
SEA M. Beniers1.510.58123%1
UTA V. Trocheck1.440.59120%1
SEA R. Winterton1.420.33011%0
SEA B. Catton1.400.46117%0
SEA A. Larsson1.400.3307%0
UTA K. Yamamoto1.340.45118%0
UTA D. But1.220.25010%0
SEA S. Wright1.210.44018%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.100.2806%0
SEA V. Ottavainen1.120.1503%0
UTA J. McBain1.110.31012%0
SEA K. Kakko1.110.55117%0
SEA B. Meyers1.100.30013%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.010.40117%1
UTA A. Peeke1.010.1904%0
UTA D. Simashev0.910.1102%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.910.29012%0
SEA C. Stephenson0.900.64019%0
UTA N. DeSimone0.910.1904%0
SEA R. Evans0.910.3519%0
SEA J. Mahura0.810.1803%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.