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Game Recap
UTA4
SJS3
UTA beat SJS 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.62 expected goals to 1.72. UTA outshot SJS 40 to 22. C. Keller led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Guenther had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 19 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| SJS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 7:27UTAD. Guenther0.08 xG
- 1st 14:58SJSA. Wennberg0.03 xG
- 2nd 14:11SJSM. Granlund0.14 xG
- 2nd 18:52UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 5:00SJSF. ZetterlundPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 9:49UTAM. Carcone0.16 xG
- 3rd 19:16UTAC. KellerPP0.10 xG
Team Stats
UTASJS
40Shots on goal22
3.62Expected goals1.72
72Shot attempts46
305v5 shots on goal13
2/6Power play1/3
17Hits15
12Blocked shots18
10Penalty minutes16
14Giveaways13
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.62 xGSJS 1.72 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 6:34 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 6:22 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:09 | 6:05 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 6:31 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:35 | 1:55 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 2:08 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:56 | 1:52 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 2:01 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 27:42 | 6:32 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:56 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 1:56 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 59:35 | Win |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:54 | 2:08 |
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:58 | 3:56 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 3:55 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 3:03 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:09 | 1:27 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 2:10 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:06 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 3:05 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 13:32 | 0:10 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 1:23 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 8:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:16 | 3:46 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:53 | 1:39 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:39 | 0:17 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 40 | 36 | 4 | .900 | 59:24 | Loss |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.6, SJS 2.9 | UTA 4, SJS 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 30.1, SJS 28.2 | UTA 40, SJS 22 |
| Win chance | UTA 60% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.8 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 5 | 0.99 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.5 | 4 | 0.63 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.3 | 6 | 0.85 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.1 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.1 | 1 | 0.89 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.0 | 3 | 0.78 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 2.0 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.7 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.5 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.3 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA V. Kolyachonok | 0.7 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.