Game Recap: UTA 2, SJS 3 (OT), November 18, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA2

Final/OTTue, Nov 18, 2025Every game that night

SJS3

SJS beat UTA 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.80 expected goals to 2.57. M. Celebrini scored three for SJS. Y. Askarov stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	0	0	2	0	2
SJS	2	0	0	1	3

1st 1:47SJSM. Celebrini0.02 xG
1st 5:58SJSM. Celebrini0.16 xG
3rd 9:25UTAJ. Peterka0.23 xG
3rd 17:09UTAJ. Peterka0.04 xG
OT 2:52SJSM. CelebriniPP0.06 xG

Team Stats

UTASJS

26Shots on goal22

2.57Expected goals1.80

58Shot attempts41

225v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play1/5

13Hits22

10Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways14

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.57 xGSJS 1.80 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA26 on goal, 2 scored

SJS22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Peterka	RW	2	0	2	2	0	0	+2	2	13:57	2:56
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:23	1:02
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+2	0	14:26	0:00
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	19:45	3:01
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:27	2:34
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	17:56	2:51
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:29	0:59
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:28	1:23
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:06	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	11:58	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	11:34	1:14
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:05	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	21:55	0:55
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	27:32	3:05
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	21:14	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	20:38	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	16:37	0:00
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	22	19	3	.864	62:52	OT loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	3	0	3	4	0	1	+1	2	19:41	6:15
W. Smith	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	17:23	6:17
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	20:32	5:58
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:56	2:18
P. Kurashev	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	13:38	2:54
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	21:47	6:15
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:57	2:49
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	8	0	-1	0	15:36	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:35	2:47
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	13:53	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:44	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:44	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	20:54	4:55
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	20:45	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	20:36	0:41
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	18:19	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:52	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:48	3:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	26	24	2	.923	62:52	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1C. Keller14:09L. Cooley15:58N. Schmaltz13:32

Line 2K. Yamamoto13:06B. Hayton13:05D. Guenther15:07

Line 3J. McBain9:16J. Peterka10:56L. Crouse10:10

Line 4K. Stenlund10:14M. Carcone10:20B. Tanev8:05

Pair 1J. Marino17:23N. Schmidt16:56

Pair 2I. Cole15:58M. Sergachev17:38

Pair 3O. Määttä12:06N. DeSimone16:01

SJS

Line 1T. Toffoli12:48A. Gaudette13:08T. Dellandrea13:42

Line 2W. Eklund13:22C. Graf13:08A. Wennberg12:39

Line 3B. Goodrow12:32Z. Ostapchuk10:44R. Reaves9:44

Line 4M. Celebrini12:25W. Smith10:05P. Kurashev10:01

Pair 1M. Ferraro17:48S. Mukhamadullin17:11

Pair 2N. Leddy18:23D. Orlov15:41

Pair 3V. Desharnais14:15S. Dickinson12:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.5, SJS 2.8	UTA 2, SJS 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	UTA 30.3, SJS 24.4	UTA 26, SJS 22
Win chance	UTA 60%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	4	0.80	0	30%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	4	1.00	3	30%	3
UTA C. Keller	2.7	1	1.02	0	32%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	1	0.91	0	28%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.3	3	0.67	0	29%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.2	1	0.88	1	30%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.1	2	0.70	2	25%	2
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	2	0.75	1	22%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.0	0	0.80	2	26%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	3	0.75	0	14%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	0	0.38	1	21%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	2	0.43	0	17%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	3	0.37	0	18%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	3	0.45	0	9%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.5	0	0.52	1	18%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.4	0	0.40	1	8%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	0	0.38	0	20%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	0	0.33	0	14%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	3	0.31	0	15%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	0	0.54	0	17%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	0	0.27	0	10%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.1	3	0.28	0	7%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	0	0.33	0	14%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	1	0.18	0	6%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.0	2	0.34	1	14%	0
UTA J. Marino	1.0	2	0.40	0	5%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	2	0.30	0	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.24	0	4%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.7	1	0.16	0	9%	0
UTA O. Määttä	0.6	0	0.18	0	3%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.6	1	0.22	0	3%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	2	0.10	0	6%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.5	1	0.12	0	2%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.13	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 12 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.