Game Recap: UTA 3, SJS 6, December 1, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

UTA3

FinalMon, Dec 1, 2025Every game that night

SJS6

SJS beat UTA 6-3, with the chances close: 2.90 expected goals to 2.92. T. Toffoli led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). M. Sergachev had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. Y. Askarov stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	2	0	1	3
SJS	3	3	0	6

1st 4:41SJST. Toffoli0.01 xG
1st 7:58SJSP. RegendaPP0.19 xG
1st 9:06UTAL. Crouse0.15 xG
1st 12:59SJST. Toffoli0.04 xG
1st 16:00UTAJ. Peterka0.04 xG
2nd 6:16SJSW. Smith0.13 xG
2nd 7:25SJSA. Gaudette0.10 xG
2nd 9:09SJSW. Smith0.20 xG
3rd 6:30UTAL. CrouseSH0.15 xG

Team Stats

UTASJS

34Shots on goal30

2.92Expected goals2.90

51Shot attempts67

305v5 shots on goal24

0/3Power play1/4

16Hits19

17Blocked shots8

8Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways10

1Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.92 xGSJS 2.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA34 on goal, 3 scored

SJS30 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Crouse	LW	2	0	2	2	0	2	+2	0	15:01	0:06
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	22:17	4:24
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	2	21:25	2:56
M. Carcone	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	2	10:26	0:29
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:25	2:29
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	-2	0	15:23	3:02
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	15:08	3:57
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	15:07	3:10
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:42	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	12:46	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	0	10:10	1:24
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	8:06	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	5	2	2	-2	2	23:53	3:27
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:05	2:19
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	0	20:00	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:11	0:03
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	18:04	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	17:02	2:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	9	6	3	.667	12:59
V. Vanecek	21	18	3	.857	46:51	Loss

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Toffoli	C	2	2	4	5	1	0	+3	0	15:17	2:58
W. Smith	C	2	1	3	5	0	0	+2	0	19:03	4:25
M. Celebrini	C	0	3	3	0	0	0	+3	0	18:14	4:38
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	20:57	4:25
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	14:12	2:41
P. Regenda	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	12:32	2:38
P. Kurashev	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	10:13	2:29
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:18	4:03
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	-2	0	13:43	0:56
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	13:20	0:52
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	12:32	0:51
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:33	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	22:37	3:10
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	21:44	4:56
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+2	0	21:27	0:40
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	19:32	0:13
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	16:08	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	11:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	34	31	3	.912	60:00	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1C. Keller17:43J. Peterka18:29B. Hayton13:42

Line 2D. Guenther11:01L. Cooley12:11K. Yamamoto8:36

Line 3L. Crouse9:45M. Carcone9:57J. McBain10:10

Line 4K. Stenlund8:27B. Tanev7:54N. Schmaltz9:30

Pair 1I. Cole14:50D. Simashev18:04

Pair 2M. Sergachev16:43S. Durzi14:03

Pair 3J. Marino15:03N. Schmidt13:07

SJS

Line 1A. Wennberg14:14W. Eklund15:50A. Gaudette11:31

Line 2W. Smith14:16M. Celebrini13:12T. Toffoli12:19

Line 3T. Dellandrea10:05C. Graf9:56P. Kurashev6:09

Line 4R. Reaves9:23P. Regenda9:44B. Goodrow10:53

Pair 1J. Klingberg16:48M. Ferraro17:39

Pair 2D. Orlov16:32S. Mukhamadullin13:24

Pair 3T. Liljegren15:52S. Dickinson11:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.5, SJS 2.6	UTA 3, SJS 6
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	UTA 30.8, SJS 23.9	UTA 34, SJS 30
Win chance	UTA 64%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.2	2	0.86	0	31%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.8	4	1.02	1	32%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	0	1.01	3	30%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	0	0.88	0	28%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.1	4	0.71	1	27%	1
SJS W. Smith	2.1	5	0.81	3	26%	2
SJS T. Toffoli	2.0	5	0.58	4	25%	2
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	5	0.70	1	13%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.9	2	0.44	2	22%	2
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	4	0.72	1	22%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	4	0.73	0	27%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.8	3	0.49	0	19%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.8	1	0.42	1	20%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.6	1	0.50	0	11%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.6	1	0.45	0	10%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.4	1	0.47	1	10%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.3	1	0.39	1	8%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	4	0.38	1	19%	1
UTA J. McBain	1.2	1	0.34	0	14%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.2	1	0.43	1	15%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	0	0.33	0	15%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.2	1	0.28	0	10%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	1	0.53	0	17%	0
SJS P. Regenda	1.1	3	0.20	1	10%	1
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	1	0.30	0	7%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	0	0.25	0	5%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.0	2	0.38	0	15%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.0	4	0.32	0	14%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	1	0.15	0	5%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	1	0.39	0	5%	0
UTA D. Simashev	0.9	1	0.10	0	3%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	0	0.26	0	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.24	0	3%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.16	0	9%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.