Game Recap: UTA 7, STL 4, October 23, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA7

FinalThu, Oct 23, 2025Every game that night

STL4

UTA beat STL 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.39 expected goals to 2.44. L. Cooley scored three for UTA. K. Vejmelka stopped 16 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	4	1	2	7
STL	0	2	2	4

1st 3:18UTAI. Cole0.16 xG
1st 6:07UTAL. Cooley0.16 xG
1st 7:57UTAL. Cooley0.16 xG
1st 10:55UTAL. CooleyPP0.40 xG
2nd 5:58STLP. Suter0.10 xG
2nd 7:13STLP. BuchnevichPP0.44 xG
2nd 19:24UTAC. Keller0.10 xG
3rd 2:19STLN. Walker0.19 xG
3rd 5:43STLP. Broberg0.06 xG
3rd 9:51UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.13 xG
3rd 18:20UTAC. KellerEN0.79 xG

Team Stats

UTASTL

25Shots on goal20

3.39Expected goals2.44

37Shot attempts39

165v5 shots on goal15

2/4Power play1/4

15Hits32

9Blocked shots5

12Penalty minutes12

16Giveaways15

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.39 xGSTL 2.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA22 on goal, 7 scored

STL19 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	3	1	4	4	0	0	+2	0	18:16	4:56
N. Schmaltz	C	1	2	3	1	1	0	+2	2	20:47	5:11
C. Keller	RW	2	1	3	2	0	0	+2	2	18:14	5:23
D. Guenther	RW	0	3	3	3	1	0	+2	2	17:55	4:56
J. Peterka	RW	0	3	3	2	0	0	+4	0	16:14	0:32
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	13:47	0:59
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	15:36	1:02
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:59	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	12:52	0:36
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	2	10:46	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	9:42	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	9:35	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	+1	2	23:10	4:15
I. Cole	D	1	0	1	2	2	2	+4	0	22:00	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	12:40	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	22:16	1:40
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	19:42	0:05
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	20	16	4	.800	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Sundqvist	C	0	2	2	0	3	0	+2	4	11:13	0:04
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	22:19	5:39
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	21:38	5:42
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:59	5:46
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	15:32	5:32
N. Walker	LW	1	0	1	3	4	0	+2	2	13:34	0:00
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	2	12:56	1:09
M. Joseph	RW	0	1	1	0	5	0	-1	0	12:20	0:00
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-3	2	15:20	1:34
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:57	1:30
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	13:52	1:23
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	9:51	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	21:18	0:08
P. Broberg	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	22:38	0:21
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	22:05	1:31
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	21:37	5:41
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	2	14:00	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	10:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	6	3	3	.500	7:57
J. Binnington	18	15	3	.833	51:05	Loss

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz13:16C. Keller12:42B. Hayton12:39

Line 2J. Peterka14:58L. Cooley12:27D. Guenther12:15

Line 3M. Carcone10:46J. McBain11:21L. Crouse9:07

Line 4L. O'Brien9:37K. Stenlund10:12B. Tanev8:25

Pair 1M. Sergachev15:04D. Simashev14:14

Pair 2N. Schmidt17:02J. Marino16:44

Pair 3I. Cole15:51O. Maatta12:40

STL

Line 1P. Buchnevich12:45R. Thomas13:38J. Kyrou12:12

Line 2B. Schenn12:53J. Neighbours11:36J. Snuggerud13:27

Line 3M. Joseph11:41P. Suter10:12N. Walker10:29

Line 4N. Bjugstad9:15O. Sundqvist9:22D. Holloway10:00

Pair 1J. Faulk17:28P. Broberg19:28

Pair 2C. Fowler14:56C. Parayko18:19

Pair 3T. Tucker10:48L. Mailloux10:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownClayton Keller UTA Plays near home (born in Chesterfield)2 G, 1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.9, STL 3.1	UTA 7, STL 4
Total goals	6.0	11
Shots on goal	UTA 26.7, STL 25.3	UTA 25, STL 20
Win chance	STL 53%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	3	0.75	3	29%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.6	2	0.81	1	33%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.4	2	0.88	3	29%	2
STL D. Holloway	2.3	1	0.75	1	26%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	1	0.72	3	24%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.0	4	0.71	4	25%	3
UTA J. Peterka	1.9	2	0.60	3	23%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.9	1	0.41	2	12%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.8	2	0.79	1	26%	1
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	0	0.43	1	17%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.42	0	8%	0
STL P. Suter	1.7	1	0.54	1	23%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	0	0.58	2	11%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	2	0.97	1	23%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	1	0.63	0	22%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	2	0.32	0	18%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.5	1	0.48	0	18%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.5	1	0.56	0	10%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	1	0.33	1	9%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	1	0.55	0	24%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.3	1	0.11	0	3%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.3	1	0.31	0	15%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.3	1	0.26	0	13%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.2	2	0.30	0	15%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	0	0.31	1	10%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.2	1	0.29	0	6%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	0	0.31	0	13%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	3	0.30	1	13%	1
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	0	0.35	2	13%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	0	0.15	0	6%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.0	0	0.27	0	7%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	1	0.20	0	10%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.8	0	0.16	0	6%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.7	3	0.28	0	3%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.6	2	0.17	1	3%	1
UTA O. Maatta	0.5	0	0.14	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.