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Game Recap
UTA0
STL1
STL beat UTA 1-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.98 expected goals to 1.98. J. Hofer stopped 18 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 18:10STLD. Holloway0.05 xG
Team Stats
UTASTL
18Shots on goal19
1.98Expected goals2.98
63Shot attempts47
115v5 shots on goal15
0/2Power play0/2
20Hits26
13Blocked shots23
4Penalty minutes17
12Giveaways16
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 1.98 xGSTL 2.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:33 | 4:45 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 4:01 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:51 | 4:42 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:32 | 2:44 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 2:17 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 2:55 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 1:45 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 4:00 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:35 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:40 | 3:25 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 | 0:59 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:35 | 2:52 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:00 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 58:31 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:27 | 3:19 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 2:13 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 | 2:47 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | 2:20 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:13 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 1:39 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:42 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 1:47 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8:58 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:40 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 22:52 | 0:06 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 | 2:41 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21:32 | 1:13 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 18 | 18 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1C. Keller14:19J. Peterka15:08N. Schmaltz13:08
Line 2K. Yamamoto13:40D. Guenther13:16L. Cooley10:26
Line 3M. Carcone12:50J. McBain11:31L. Crouse10:04
Line 4K. Stenlund9:06B. Tanev7:37B. Hayton10:33
Pair 1I. Cole15:59N. DeSimone16:32
Pair 2N. Schmidt15:58J. Marino16:14
Pair 3M. Sergachev15:35S. Durzi14:14
STL
Line 1O. Sundqvist10:54M. Joseph11:56A. Toropchenko8:37
Line 2R. Thomas13:48J. Kyrou11:41J. Neighbours12:38
Line 3P. Buchnevich11:03D. Dvorsky11:00B. Schenn13:05
Line 4N. Bjugstad10:15J. Snuggerud12:42D. Holloway13:19
Pair 1C. Parayko17:53P. Broberg17:26
Pair 3C. Fowler17:05L. Mailloux13:02
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.0, STL 3.0 | UTA 0, STL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 27.3, STL 24.3 | UTA 18, STL 19 |
| Win chance | UTA 51% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.8 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 4 | 0.85 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.4 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.9 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.8 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.7 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.6 | 0 | 0.94 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.