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Game Recap
UTA3
VAN1
UTA beat VAN 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.60 expected goals to 1.57. N. Schmaltz led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). Q. Hughes had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. K. Vejmelka stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| VAN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 2:37VANQ. HughesPP0.03 xG
- 2nd 12:04UTAK. Stenlund0.29 xG
- 3rd 5:08UTAL. Cooley0.17 xG
- 3rd 19:29UTAC. KellerEN0.54 xG
Team Stats
UTAVAN
23Shots on goal19
2.60Expected goals1.57
52Shot attempts53
185v5 shots on goal13
0/1Power play1/4
17Hits38
18Blocked shots20
14Penalty minutes8
9Giveaways12
5Takeaways0
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.60 xGVAN 1.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:18 |
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:26 | 1:18 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:20 | 0:42 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 7:37 | 0:36 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:05 | 1:18 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:28 | 1:18 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:42 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:15 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10:35 | 0:27 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:47 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:06 | 0:06 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:36 | 1:13 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:50 | 5:19 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:56 | 5:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:46 | 4:06 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 1:21 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 5:24 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 2:12 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:47 | 1:23 |
| N. Aman | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 29:49 | 5:50 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:24 | 1:50 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:54 | 0:45 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 59:25 | Loss |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.1, VAN 2.9 | UTA 3, VAN 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 26.9, VAN 25.1 | UTA 23, VAN 19 |
| Win chance | UTA 53% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.8 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 5 | 1.02 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.1 | 5 | 0.91 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 1 | 0.76 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.8 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN N. Aman | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.