Game Recap: UTA 4, VAN 1, December 5, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

UTA4

FinalFri, Dec 5, 2025Every game that night

VAN1

UTA beat VAN 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.22 expected goals to 3.56. VAN outshot UTA 33 to 18. K. Stenlund led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Pettersson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. K. Vejmelka stopped 32 of 33.

Team Stats

UTAVAN

18Shots on goal33

2.22Expected goals3.56

44Shot attempts74

165v5 shots on goal28

1/2Power play0/3

25Hits21

23Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways19

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.22 xGVAN 3.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA17 on goal, 3 scored

VAN33 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Stenlund	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	4	14:08	0:10
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:45	0:35
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	17:08	1:38
J. McBain	C	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	15:41	0:00
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:19	1:38
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	2	14:52	1:42
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:06	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	2	6	1	0	0	17:13	0:30
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:47	1:33
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:57	0:31
D. But	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:57	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:51	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	1	1	2	1	2	3	+1	2	23:53	1:50
J. Marino	D	1	0	1	2	1	4	+3	0	22:54	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:37	0:35
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	0	7	+2	0	19:01	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	18:31	0:23
M. Lamoureux	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	11:59	3:13
A. Bains	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	9:23	0:36
A. Räty	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	9:01	0:36
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	22:41	2:55
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	5	0	3	-3	0	21:47	4:31
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	19:47	4:30
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	19:38	4:34
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:07	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	4	9	0	0	0	14:07	0:35
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:49	0:38
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	12:43	0:29
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	11:27	0:02
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-3	2	29:29	4:41
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	24:34	0:34
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:41	0:02
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:24	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:53	0:58
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:41	0:36

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	17	14	3	.824	58:36	Loss
N. Tolopilo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz14:54J. Peterka15:30C. Keller13:36

Line 2D. Guenther13:10L. Cooley14:25D. But11:57

Line 3L. Crouse11:36M. Carcone12:03J. McBain11:07

Line 4K. Stenlund11:12K. Yamamoto10:47L. O'Brien8:51

Pair 1J. Marino18:58M. Sergachev17:23

Pair 2S. Durzi17:23N. Schmidt16:09

Pair 3I. Cole15:15M. Lamoureux14:39

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser14:47C. Garland17:03D. Kampf15:03

Line 2E. Pettersson14:55J. DeBrusk13:14L. Karlsson12:14

Line 3D. O'Connor12:11M. Sasson11:25K. Sherwood12:16

Line 4A. Bains8:47A. Räty8:25J. Lekkerimäki8:46

Pair 1Q. Hughes22:29F. Hronek21:16

Pair 2M. Pettersson15:58T. Willander12:49

Pair 3T. Myers15:43E. Pettersson11:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.2, VAN 2.9	UTA 4, VAN 1
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	UTA 28.6, VAN 24.9	UTA 18, VAN 33
Win chance	UTA 54%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	0	0.77	1	27%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.7	4	1.07	0	15%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	1	0.96	1	29%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.4	3	0.71	0	26%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.3	5	0.61	0	29%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	2	0.78	0	32%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.1	1	0.72	1	25%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.0	1	0.74	1	23%	1
VAN K. Sherwood	2.0	4	0.60	0	25%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	5	0.93	0	31%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	2	0.44	0	21%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	1	0.62	2	12%	1
UTA L. Cooley	1.8	2	0.68	0	24%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.7	1	0.40	0	17%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	2	0.52	0	8%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.4	1	0.35	0	15%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.4	0	0.41	0	9%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.2	0	0.36	0	7%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.2	0	0.34	0	15%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	0	0.34	1	13%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	0	0.28	0	5%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	3	0.29	2	13%	1
UTA M. Lamoureux	1.1	1	0.24	0	5%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.1	1	0.16	0	6%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.0	0	0.28	1	13%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	0	0.27	0	14%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.9	0	0.28	1	12%	0
VAN D. Kampf	0.9	1	0.26	0	10%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.8	2	0.30	0	4%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.8	1	0.28	1	12%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	2	0.34	1	4%	1
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.24	0	4%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.7	1	0.27	0	3%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.6	1	0.10	0	3%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.5	1	0.11	1	5%	1

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.