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Game Recap
UTA3
FinalWed, Nov 11, 2026Every game that night
VGK5

VGK beat UTA 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.19 expected goals to 1.82. VGK outshot UTA 28 to 17. V. Olofsson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). V. Olofsson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. Hart stopped 14 of 17.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA1113
VGK1315
  1. 1st 2:15VGKJ. EichelPP0.09 xG
  2. 1st 8:07UTAL. Crouse0.17 xG
  3. 2nd 3:07VGKV. OlofssonPP0.12 xG
  4. 2nd 4:51VGKI. Barbashev0.06 xG
  5. 2nd 8:16VGKI. Barbashev0.16 xG
  6. 2nd 16:39UTAJ. McBain0.10 xG
  7. 3rd 9:07UTAD. Simashev0.07 xG
  8. 3rd 10:19VGKB. Howden0.08 xG

Team Stats

UTAVGK
17Shots on goal28
1.82Expected goals4.19
52Shot attempts54
135v5 shots on goal23
0/1Power play2/4
28Hits23
10Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes2
21Giveaways18
2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 1.82 xGVGK 4.19 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdVGK goal, 2:15UTA goal, 8:07VGK goal, 3:07VGK goal, 4:51VGK goal, 8:16UTA goal, 16:39UTA goal, 9:07VGK goal, 10:19

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA15 on goal, 3 scored
VGK28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. McBainC123261+2014:210:00
L. CrouseLW1121400215:120:00
C. KellerRW011400+1022:161:36
V. TrocheckC000110+2020:141:26
K. YamamotoRW000011-1018:130:33
A. LeeLW000121-1017:190:34
B. HaytonC000100-2015:091:29
M. CarconeLW0000010014:220:24
K. StenlundC0001000014:000:00
D. ButLW000100-1012:360:31
L. O'BrienC000072008:520:00
N. SchmaltzC000000007:191:27
A. PeekeD0220000017:240:00
D. SimashevD101110+1216:500:00
M. SergachevD0004130025:011:43
M. WeegarD000031-1021:360:17
N. DeSimoneD000010+1218:440:00
A. DudaD000010-1016:090:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Cossa28235.82158:23Loss
K. Vejmelka000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MarnerRW0333000018:253:51
V. OlofssonLW123600+1017:303:53
J. EichelC1121000021:273:57
I. BarbashevLW202210+1014:260:00
M. StoneRW0110010019:383:55
T. HertlC011110+1218:063:55
W. KarlssonC0110000015:020:05
B. HowdenC1014200013:550:00
T. ConnellyLW0002120014:550:09
B. BowmanRW000111-1012:000:05
M. GatcombC000150-1010:160:00
N. DowdC000131-1010:020:00
S. TheodoreD011011+1023:070:07
B. McNabbD0002230024:370:03
J. LauzonD000030-1017:450:00
R. AnderssonD000001-2017:160:00
P. WotherspoonD000210+1015:310:00
D. CoghlanD000220+1014:020:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hart17143.82460:00Win
A. Hill000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1A. Lee15:08B. Hayton13:40K. Yamamoto16:48
Line 2L. Crouse13:00J. McBain12:12M. Carcone13:58
Line 3V. Trocheck15:17C. Keller19:03D. But12:05
Line 4K. Stenlund11:54L. O'Brien8:52
Pair 1M. Weegar18:16M. Sergachev19:08
Pair 2N. DeSimone18:03A. Duda16:09
Pair 3A. Peeke15:51D. Simashev16:39

VGK

Line 1M. Stone15:06J. Eichel16:14T. Connelly14:46
Line 2M. Marner14:05B. Howden13:30W. Karlsson13:52
Line 3T. Hertl12:34V. Olofsson12:01I. Barbashev12:50
Line 4N. Dowd9:51M. Gatcomb10:16B. Bowman11:55
Pair 1B. McNabb21:38S. Theodore20:09
Pair 2R. Andersson16:45J. Lauzon16:51
Pair 3P. Wotherspoon15:30D. Coghlan14:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 19 overs hit (42%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
UTA C. Keller2.5+135-1554Over
VGK J. Eichel2.5-105-1201Under
VGK M. Marner2.5+135-1603Over
VGK T. Hertl2.5+150-1751Under
UTA A. Lee1.5-152+1201Under
UTA B. Hayton1.5-121+1051Under
VGK B. Howden1.5+130-1454Over
VGK B. McNabb1.5+140-1902Over
VGK I. Barbashev1.5+170-2002Over
UTA M. Carcone1.5+130-1600Under
UTA M. Sergachev1.5-140+1204Over
VGK M. Stone1.5-155+1300Under
UTA M. Weegar1.5-105-1150Under
UTA N. Schmaltz1.5-175+1430Under
VGK S. Theodore1.5-118+1050Under
VGK T. Connelly1.5-120+1202Over
VGK V. Olofsson1.5-140+1156Over
UTA V. Trocheck1.5-110-1201Under
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-110-1150Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.1, VGK 3.3UTA 3, VGK 5
Total goals6.48
Shots on goalUTA 26.2, VGK 27.3UTA 17, VGK 28
Win chanceVGK 55%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel2.611.09229%1
UTA C. Keller2.440.91127%0
VGK M. Marner2.131.09328%0
VGK T. Hertl2.010.69128%0
UTA A. Lee2.010.44022%0
VGK T. Connelly2.020.66025%0
VGK M. Stone1.900.94131%0
UTA N. Schmaltz1.800.64023%0
VGK W. Karlsson1.800.61123%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.840.65010%0
VGK S. Theodore1.800.63111%0
VGK V. Olofsson1.760.47321%1
UTA B. Hayton1.710.39016%0
VGK R. Andersson1.700.44010%0
UTA M. Weegar1.700.3708%0
UTA L. Crouse1.610.42220%1
UTA V. Trocheck1.610.55019%0
UTA M. Carcone1.400.29015%0
VGK D. Coghlan1.320.1705%0
VGK B. Howden1.340.49123%1
UTA K. Yamamoto1.300.38016%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.320.56219%2
VGK B. McNabb1.220.3505%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.110.18010%0
VGK B. Bowman1.110.42017%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.100.1604%0
UTA J. McBain1.020.27312%1
UTA D. Simashev1.010.1716%1
UTA A. Peeke1.000.1923%0
UTA D. But1.010.20011%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.810.2008%0
UTA L. O'Brien0.800.1307%0
UTA N. DeSimone0.700.1503%0
VGK N. Dowd0.710.2209%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.