Game Recap: UTA 3, WPG 2, October 26, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA3

FinalSun, Oct 26, 2025Every game that night

WPG2

UTA beat WPG 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.79 expected goals to 3.40. J. Morrissey led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). G. Nyquist had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. V. Vanecek stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	2	1	3
WPG	0	2	0	2

2nd 0:45WPGD. DeMelo0.02 xG
2nd 10:03UTAM. SergachevPP0.08 xG
2nd 11:07UTAM. Carcone0.16 xG
2nd 15:09WPGM. ScheifelePP0.07 xG
3rd 14:24UTAD. Guenther0.10 xG

Team Stats

UTAWPG

32Shots on goal30

2.79Expected goals3.40

61Shot attempts61

245v5 shots on goal19

1/4Power play1/1

9Hits25

14Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes8

18Giveaways16

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.79 xGWPG 3.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA30 on goal, 3 scored

WPG30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	19:51	4:53
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:10	4:48
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	18:53	5:07
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	17:40	1:38
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:22	1:02
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	10:13	0:00
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:24	5:09
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:03	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:55	0:45
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	13:35	0:47
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:58	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:57	0:43
M. Sergachev	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	0	26:09	5:34
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	21:34	2:16
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	2	21:07	0:53
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	17:43	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	16:53	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	19:56	1:57
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	19:49	1:57
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	18:13	1:57
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:07	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:01	1:54
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	13:45	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:44	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	13:37	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:04	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	12:12	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	10:48	0:00
N. Chibrikov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	10:15	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	2	2	3	1	2	+1	0	24:09	1:57
D. DeMelo	D	1	0	1	1	1	4	+1	0	22:39	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	2	24:52	0:03
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	19:12	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	14:57	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	2	12:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	32	29	3	.906	59:07	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1J. Peterka15:47L. Cooley14:12D. Guenther12:59

Line 2N. Schmaltz13:47C. Keller12:24B. Hayton12:16

Line 3K. Stenlund14:06K. Yamamoto11:20B. Tanev10:58

Line 4L. Crouse10:15M. Carcone10:13J. McBain9:14

Pair 1N. Schmidt18:21J. Marino19:15

Pair 2M. Sergachev17:21D. Simashev16:25

Pair 3I. Cole14:56O. Maatta11:36

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele15:20G. Vilardi15:02K. Connor14:51

Line 2N. Niederreiter13:39G. Nyquist11:57V. Namestnikov12:03

Line 3T. Pearson10:04C. Koepke10:50M. Barron10:41

Line 4J. Toews12:29A. Iafallo9:32N. Chibrikov10:15

Pair 1D. DeMelo18:16J. Morrissey17:39

Pair 2N. Pionk19:35H. Fleury16:09

Pair 3L. Schenn12:06L. Stanley14:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrandon Tanev UTA Faces WPG, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.6, WPG 3.3	UTA 3, WPG 2
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	UTA 26.3, WPG 27.2	UTA 32, WPG 30
Win chance	WPG 61%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.3	3	1.18	1	39%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.6	4	0.64	1	24%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.2	3	0.75	0	25%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	2	1.07	1	37%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	2	0.64	1	21%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.1	3	0.74	2	15%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	4	0.81	1	31%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	3	0.63	1	23%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	4	0.43	0	8%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.8	0	0.50	1	19%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.7	1	0.43	0	20%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	4	0.54	1	9%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.6	2	0.45	0	19%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	1	0.35	0	14%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	3	0.27	0	16%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.3	0	0.47	0	18%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.2	2	0.28	1	5%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.2	2	0.25	1	13%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.2	1	0.27	0	12%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	1	0.25	0	13%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.2	2	0.09	0	3%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	0	0.29	0	12%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	1	0.44	0	15%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	1	0.27	0	12%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	4	0.44	0	15%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.29	1	5%	1
WPG N. Chibrikov	1.0	0	0.29	0	13%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	1	0.21	0	11%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.0	0	0.24	1	11%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	3	0.14	0	3%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.9	0	0.11	0	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	1	0.17	0	9%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	0	0.21	0	4%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	2	0.29	0	3%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	1	0.18	0	3%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.6	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.