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Game Recap
UTA5
WSH4
UTA beat WSH 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.37 expected goals to 3.83. WSH outshot UTA 42 to 27. T. Wilson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). R. Sandin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. K. Vejmelka stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| WSH | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 1:10UTAJ. Doan0.02 xG
- 1st 1:42UTAM. Carcone0.15 xG
- 1st 3:47WSHT. WilsonPP0.11 xG
- 1st 7:07UTAJ. McBain0.19 xG
- 1st 12:38WSHP. DuboisPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 2:47UTAD. GuentherPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 4:49WSHD. Strome0.25 xG
- 3rd 18:29WSHT. Wilson0.10 xG
Team Stats
UTAWSH
27Shots on goal42
3.37Expected goals3.83
61Shot attempts65
255v5 shots on goal32
1/1Power play2/2
13Hits13
13Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes2
17Giveaways12
2Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.37 xGWSH 3.83 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 1:18 |
| J. Doan | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:09 | 1:18 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:36 | 1:18 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:01 | 1:18 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 25:51 | 1:18 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:50 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ingram | 10 | 8 | 2 | .800 | 12:38 | |
| K. Vejmelka | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 52:22 | Win |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Wilson | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:46 | 1:31 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 1:31 |
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:45 | 1:31 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 | 1:31 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 27:08 | 1:31 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:28 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 64:31 | OT loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.6, WSH 3.1 | UTA 5, WSH 4 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 26.7, WSH 27.1 | UTA 27, WSH 42 |
| Win chance | WSH 59% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.3 | 4 | 0.89 | 3 | 38% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.8 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.7 | 5 | 0.72 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.3 | 5 | 0.58 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 4 | 0.64 | 3 | 28% | 2 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.63 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 2 | 0.84 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 5 | 0.66 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.6 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 5 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.