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Game Recap
VAN5
ANA4
VAN beat ANA 5-4, with the chances close: 4.73 expected goals to 4.82. ANA outshot VAN 41 to 28. J. LaCombe led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Carlsson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. N. Tolopilo stopped 37 of 41.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| ANA | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 9:49VANL. Karlsson0.58 xG
- 1st 11:47VANE. KanePP0.06 xG
- 2nd 0:09ANAJ. LaCombePP0.09 xG
- 2nd 9:04VANC. Garland0.09 xG
- 2nd 16:19ANAL. Carlsson0.13 xG
- 2nd 18:34ANAM. McTavish0.09 xG
- 3rd 15:58VANM. Sasson0.11 xG
- 3rd 18:08VAND. O'ConnorEN0.45 xG
- 3rd 19:53ANAC. Gauthier0.10 xG
Team Stats
VANANA
28Shots on goal41
4.73Expected goals4.82
64Shot attempts90
195v5 shots on goal28
1/3Power play1/6
13Hits15
17Blocked shots16
14Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways10
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 4.73 xGANA 4.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sasson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 7:58 | 0:12 |
| C. Garland | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 3:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:28 | 3:02 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 2:59 |
| E. Kane | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:25 | 1:36 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 11:25 | 0:12 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 6:49 | 1:23 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 2:59 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 1:22 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 7:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 4:58 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 24:25 | 1:24 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 1:07 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:52 | 3:27 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:11 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:01 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Tolopilo | 41 | 37 | 4 | .902 | 59:52 | Win |
| J. Patera | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Gauthier | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:47 | 5:43 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:02 | 6:25 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 19:23 | 6:19 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:33 | 6:34 |
| B. Sennecke | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 3:41 |
| M. McTavish | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:27 | 3:16 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:10 | 2:59 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:15 | 3:16 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:04 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:22 | 0:11 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:28 | 0:01 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:18 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:42 | 6:44 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:08 | 2:53 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:03 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:04 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:12 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VAN
Line 1E. Kane13:36E. Pettersson14:00J. DeBrusk10:13
Line 2B. Boeser14:37C. Garland12:48D. Kampf12:32
Line 3K. Sherwood10:12D. O'Connor9:42A. Räty6:47
Line 4M. Sasson7:46A. Bains4:58L. Karlsson5:26
Pair 2M. Pettersson12:23T. Willander11:45
Pair 3T. Myers13:08E. Pettersson8:55
ANA
Line 1A. Killorn12:04R. Strome10:38F. Vatrano11:27
Line 2C. Gauthier10:39B. Sennecke10:50L. Carlsson12:24
Line 3C. Kreider10:10T. Terry9:53M. McTavish10:04
Line 4R. Johnston8:13N. Nesterenko9:15J. Harkins7:12
Pair 1J. Trouba14:41O. Zellweger14:28
Pair 2R. Gudas12:51P. Mintyukov13:03
Pair 3J. LaCombe13:39D. Helleson13:04
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 3.2, ANA 3.2 | VAN 5, ANA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 28.1, ANA 29.6 | VAN 28, ANA 41 |
| Win chance | ANA 51% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA C. Gauthier | 3.5 | 1 | 0.95 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 3.0 | 1 | 1.15 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.8 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.6 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.5 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.3 | 5 | 0.65 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.3 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.2 | 6 | 0.93 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| ANA C. Kreider | 2.2 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 2.1 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.96 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 1.9 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.9 | 5 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.9 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 3 | 14% | 1 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 1.7 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.6 | 1 | 0.54 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.1 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.0 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN D. Kampf | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.