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Game Recap
VAN6
Final/OTTue, Oct 27, 2026Every game that night
ANA5

VAN beat ANA 6-5 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.19 expected goals to 2.71. VAN outshot ANA 33 to 23. J. Lekkerimäki led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Boeser had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. L. Meriläinen stopped 18 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
VAN01416
ANA13105
  1. 1st 15:52ANAA. Greer0.04 xG
  2. 2nd 6:36VANL. Ohgren0.09 xG
  3. 2nd 7:06ANAJ. Malott0.09 xG
  4. 2nd 15:44ANAB. SenneckePP0.32 xG
  5. 2nd 18:24ANAL. Carlsson0.46 xG
  6. 3rd 11:40VANB. Boeser0.11 xG
  7. 3rd 12:23ANAA. Greer0.06 xG
  8. 3rd 12:54VANJ. Oleksiak0.06 xG
  9. 3rd 17:14VANJ. Lekkerimäki0.04 xG
  10. 3rd 18:03VANJ. Lekkerimäki0.03 xG
  11. OT 4:49VANF. HronekPP0.17 xG

Team Stats

VANANA
33Shots on goal23
4.19Expected goals2.71
62Shot attempts41
155v5 shots on goal18
1/7Power play1/2
25Hits19
9Blocked shots12
16Penalty minutes26
17Giveaways18
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 4.19 xGANA 2.71 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTANA goal, 15:52VAN goal, 6:36ANA goal, 7:06ANA goal, 15:44ANA goal, 18:24VAN goal, 11:40ANA goal, 12:23VAN goal, 12:54VAN goal, 17:14VAN goal, 18:03VAN goal, 4:49

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN32 on goal, 6 scored
ANA23 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. BoeserRW123640+2021:457:15
J. LekkerimäkiRW213410+1019:555:29
E. PetterssonC022211+2224:577:28
L. KarlssonC011631+1018:022:57
L. OhgrenLW101101+1013:430:00
J. DeBruskLW000301+3021:396:53
F. ChytilC000202+1021:262:58
M. RossiC000230+1017:063:18
D. O'ConnorLW000101-2015:300:00
P. CotterLW000150-11010:453:02
M. SassonC000000-109:420:00
A. BainsLW000001-107:130:00
F. HronekD1122000027:086:29
J. OleksiakD101120+1020:510:05
Z. BuiumD0111000020:183:34
T. WillanderD000001+2020:570:12
E. PetterssonD000060-2414:150:00
V. ManciniD000100-1011:050:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Meriläinen23185.78362:47Win
K. Lankinen000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC112100+1016:100:28
A. GreerLW202231+1015:020:04
S. ColangeloRW0221100012:530:11
J. MalottLW112210+21010:300:00
B. SenneckeRW101100-1417:570:39
C. GauthierLW0114000016:280:28
M. GranlundC000200-2022:350:39
T. WasheC000212+1020:360:04
A. KillornLW000000-3218:180:00
J. CaulfieldRW0001410014:570:00
N. NesterenkoC000010-106:560:00
R. McQueenC000010-106:200:00
J. LaCombeD0331130028:470:41
N. WarrenD011242+1021:380:04
T. LuneauD0112110020:250:11
D. HellesonD000011-2218:490:00
T. MitchellD0002010418:280:04
T. HindsD000000-1417:380:02
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal33276.81864:49OT loss
V. Husso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1L. Karlsson15:05L. Ohgren13:28M. Rossi13:44
Line 2F. Chytil15:06J. Lekkerimäki12:32D. O'Connor13:54
Line 3J. DeBrusk13:05E. Pettersson13:57B. Boeser12:40
Line 4M. Sasson8:41A. Bains7:13P. Cotter6:34
Pair 1J. Oleksiak20:14T. Willander19:48
Pair 2F. Hronek16:33E. Pettersson13:03
Pair 3Z. Buium14:47V. Mancini11:01

ANA

Line 1J. Caulfield14:17C. Gauthier14:27L. Carlsson14:00
Line 2M. Granlund14:47B. Sennecke13:11J. Malott10:12
Line 3A. Greer14:14T. Washe13:10S. Colangelo11:58
Line 4A. Killorn10:52R. McQueen6:20N. Nesterenko6:56
Pair 1J. LaCombe18:33N. Warren16:31
Pair 2T. Hinds14:55T. Luneau18:16
Pair 3D. Helleson13:39T. Mitchell15:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 23 overs hit (48%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5-130+1404Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5-148+1351Under
VAN J. DeBrusk2.5+126-1303Over
ANA L. Carlsson2.5-110-1051Under
ANA M. Granlund2.5+142-1502Under
ANA A. Greer1.5+105-1202Over
ANA A. Killorn1.5-145+1250Under
VAN B. Boeser1.5-150+1256Over
VAN D. O'Connor1.5+115-1351Under
VAN F. Chytil1.5-185+1602Over
VAN F. Hronek1.5+110-1252Over
ANA J. Caulfield1.5-120-1051Under
ANA J. LaCombe1.5-135+1051Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki1.5+100-1254Over
VAN L. Ohgren1.5+115-1651Under
VAN M. Rossi1.5+125-1852Over
VAN M. Sasson1.5+150–0Under
ANA N. Nesterenko1.5-105-1200Under
ANA S. Colangelo1.5+105-1351Under
ANA T. Hinds1.5+115-1400Under
ANA T. Luneau1.5+125-1302Over
ANA T. Mitchell1.5+180–2Over
ANA T. Washe1.5+165-2202Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVAN 2.8, ANA 3.8VAN 6, ANA 5
Total goals6.511
Shots on goalVAN 22.5, ANA 32.4VAN 33, ANA 23
Win chanceANA 66%VAN won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.941.05136%0
ANA B. Sennecke3.010.97133%1
ANA L. Carlsson2.711.06231%1
VAN J. DeBrusk2.530.64028%0
VAN F. Chytil2.420.56023%0
ANA M. Granlund2.121.00027%0
VAN B. Boeser1.960.73329%1
ANA J. Caulfield1.810.57019%0
VAN E. Pettersson1.720.83227%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.710.90315%0
VAN D. O'Connor1.610.40018%0
VAN F. Hronek1.620.63210%1
ANA A. Killorn1.500.47019%0
ANA A. Greer1.520.43216%2
VAN J. Lekkerimäki1.540.53320%2
ANA J. Malott1.520.31211%1
ANA R. McQueen1.400.27012%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.400.35013%0
ANA S. Colangelo1.310.35217%0
ANA T. Hinds1.200.1605%0
ANA T. Luneau1.120.4119%0
VAN L. Ohgren1.110.32113%1
ANA T. Washe1.120.34015%0
VAN Z. Buium1.010.3617%0
VAN M. Rossi1.020.47017%0
VAN M. Sasson1.000.33017%0
ANA N. Warren1.020.3616%0
VAN E. Pettersson0.900.2508%0
VAN T. Willander0.900.3307%0
VAN P. Cotter0.910.32016%0
VAN J. Oleksiak0.810.2015%1
ANA T. Mitchell0.720.2306%0
VAN A. Bains0.700.1908%0
VAN V. Mancini0.610.1503%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.