Game Recap: VAN 6, CBJ 7 (SO), March 28, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN6

Final/SOFri, Mar 28, 2025Every game that night

CBJ7

CBJ beat VAN 7-6 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.93 expected goals to 3.02. B. Jenner led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Sherwood had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. E. Merzlikins stopped 31 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
VAN	3	1	2	0	6
CBJ	0	3	3	1	7

1st 8:51VANL. KarlssonPP0.11 xG
1st 10:35VANB. Boeser0.08 xG
1st 13:26VANJ. DeBruskPP0.42 xG
2nd 0:34CBJB. Jenner0.11 xG
2nd 4:54CBJK. Marchenko0.11 xG
2nd 8:44CBJD. Fabbro0.03 xG
2nd 11:23VANT. MyersSH0.09 xG
3rd 6:42VANA. Räty0.03 xG
3rd 7:03CBJD. Mateychuk0.03 xG
3rd 16:46CBJB. JennerPP0.14 xG
3rd 17:08CBJM. Olivier0.15 xG
3rd 17:31VANA. Räty0.25 xG

Team Stats

VANCBJ

37Shots on goal38

3.02Expected goals2.93

57Shot attempts66

285v5 shots on goal31

2/2Power play1/4

23Hits22

14Blocked shots12

10Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways15

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 3.02 xGCBJ 2.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN36 on goal, 6 scored

CBJ37 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Suter	C	0	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	24:20	1:31
K. Sherwood	LW	0	3	3	6	10	1	+2	0	16:19	0:30
B. Boeser	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0	21:15	1:31
D. Joshua	C	0	2	2	0	2	0	+1	0	12:58	0:00
A. Räty	C	2	0	2	2	1	0	+1	0	12:27	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	4	0	1	-2	0	20:20	1:33
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	-3	0	18:48	0:28
L. Karlsson	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	6	9:18	0:28
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	14:48	0:00
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:34	0:00
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:25	1:33
N. Aman	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:14	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	5	0	2	-1	0	28:24	2:01
T. Myers	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	+2	0	22:41	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	24:42	0:30
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:07	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:19	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	4	10:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	38	32	6	.842	65:00	OT loss
T. Demko	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	2	1	3	6	2	0	+1	0	21:30	3:05
K. Marchenko	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	-2	0	21:26	3:44
M. Olivier	RW	1	1	2	1	3	0	+1	0	11:40	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	2	21:37	3:08
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+2	0	19:40	2:23
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	14:50	2:58
J. Danforth	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	13:39	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:47	3:44
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	19:05	2:58
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	9:29	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:28	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	9:22	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	1	2	3	3	2	1	+1	2	18:54	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	1	1	2	3	0	3	+1	0	17:58	2:05
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	6	0	0	-1	0	29:49	3:30
E. Gudbranson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	14:37	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	23:02	2:36
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	17:06	0:19

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	37	31	6	.838	65:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamConor Garland CBJ First game against VAN since he left (his team until Mar 2026)1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.3, CBJ 3.0	VAN 6, CBJ 7
Total goals	6.3	13
Shots on goal	VAN 27.0, CBJ 26.8	VAN 37, CBJ 38
Win chance	VAN 54%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.2	6	0.93	1	22%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.6	5	1.08	2	15%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.4	2	0.76	2	29%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	2.2	6	0.60	3	26%	2
VAN C. Garland	2.2	4	0.65	1	25%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	4	0.65	1	30%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.1	2	0.61	1	24%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.1	1	0.80	1	24%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	3	0.81	2	33%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	3	0.58	0	24%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.8	1	0.57	3	25%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.7	6	0.50	3	21%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	1	0.66	0	23%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	3	0.38	1	13%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.5	1	0.38	0	17%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	1	0.53	0	8%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	1	0.36	2	15%	1
CBJ J. Danforth	1.3	2	0.36	1	16%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	3	0.32	1	5%	1
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.2	1	0.28	0	14%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	2	0.35	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.2	3	0.29	3	8%	1
CBJ L. Kunin	1.1	1	0.22	0	12%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.1	1	0.37	0	9%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	2	0.24	0	11%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.0	2	0.15	1	11%	1
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	0	0.23	1	6%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	2	0.25	2	13%	2
VAN D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.35	2	17%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.32	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Severson	0.9	1	0.31	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.8	3	0.20	2	7%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	1	0.13	0	2%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
VAN N. Aman	0.6	0	0.23	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.