Game Recap: VAN 1, CGY 3, December 31, 2024

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Game Recap

VAN1

FinalTue, Dec 31, 2024Every game that night

CGY3

CGY beat VAN 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.01 expected goals to 2.08. J. Huberdeau led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Miller had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. D. Wolf stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	0	0	1	1
CGY	1	0	2	3

1st 14:31CGYC. Zary0.56 xG
3rd 6:15VANB. BoeserPP0.09 xG
3rd 9:18CGYN. Kadri0.13 xG
3rd 18:58CGYJ. HuberdeauEN0.41 xG

Team Stats

VANCGY

24Shots on goal29

2.08Expected goals4.01

47Shot attempts62

185v5 shots on goal26

1/2Power play0/2

29Hits28

16Blocked shots11

25Penalty minutes25

10Giveaways15

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.08 xGCGY 4.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN24 on goal, 1 scored

CGY29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	18:17	1:58
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	5	3	2	0	7	17:36	2:24
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	20:07	1:56
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	19:27	0:42
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	16:57	1:57
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:11	0:41
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:36	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	14:16	0:26
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	11:59	0:14
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:49	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	8:49	0:00
P. Di Giuseppe	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	8:29	0:00
E. Brannstrom	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	-1	5	17:40	1:48
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	23:33	0:14
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	21:33	0:50
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	4	19:24	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	18:01	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	2	16:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	28	26	2	.929	58:01	Loss
T. Demko	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	1	2	1	2	1	+2	0	18:09	1:24
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	5	3	0	+2	0	19:45	2:13
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:18	1:35
C. Zary	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	14:30	0:30
M. Pospisil	C	0	1	1	0	5	0	+1	0	14:19	1:14
J. Pelletier	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	12:16	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	19:39	1:29
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	4	19:26	1:19
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	18:06	1:06
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:10	0:00
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	7:48	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10	7:21	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	24:52	2:20
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	5	22:49	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	3	6	1	+3	2	20:54	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+3	0	20:21	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	14:39	0:25
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.2, CGY 3.2	VAN 1, CGY 3
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	VAN 25.6, CGY 30.3	VAN 24, CGY 29
Win chance	CGY 50%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	5	0.85	1	28%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	0	0.55	0	19%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.4	2	0.77	0	25%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	1	0.60	0	25%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	2	0.55	0	20%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.0	3	0.53	0	14%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	1.9	3	0.62	0	27%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.9	5	0.78	1	30%	1
VAN J. Miller	1.9	5	0.97	1	27%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	1	0.83	2	23%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.8	2	0.52	1	22%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.7	1	0.48	0	13%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.7	0	0.44	1	13%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.7	1	0.47	0	20%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.6	0	0.45	0	19%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.5	3	0.51	1	18%	1
CGY J. Pelletier	1.2	4	0.30	1	11%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	1	0.40	0	11%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	2	0.38	0	11%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.1	0	0.41	0	16%	0
VAN P. Giuseppe	1.1	2	0.26	0	12%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.0	1	0.24	0	6%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	1	0.25	0	5%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.0	0	0.26	0	3%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.0	1	0.28	0	14%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	2	0.22	0	7%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	0.9	1	0.22	1	3%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.9	1	0.11	0	4%	0
CGY W. Duehr	0.8	1	0.23	0	10%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.8	1	0.15	0	8%	0
VAN D. Joshua	0.7	0	0.35	0	16%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.7	1	0.13	0	7%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.11	0	2%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.6	0	0.16	0	4%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.12	0	4%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.13	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.