DAL beat VAN 5-3, with the chances close: 2.77 expected goals to 2.52. VAN outshot DAL 29 to 16. R. Hintz led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Soucy had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Oettinger stopped 26 of 29.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.52 xGDAL 2.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:29 | 6:33 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 21:10 | 6:26 |
| C. Garland | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 | 6:30 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:06 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 2:42 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 21:25 | 6:29 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:20 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:04 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 2:49 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:39 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 25:22 | 3:17 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:26 | 8:22 |
| C. Soucy | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:49 | 0:49 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:36 | 0:12 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Demko | 14 | 11 | 3 | .786 | 58:54 | Loss |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hintz | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:47 | 2:11 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:14 | 2:12 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:06 | 2:11 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:24 | 2:10 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:36 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:40 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:16 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:41 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +3 | 0 | 26:03 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:17 | 2:18 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:06 | 0:23 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 11:23 | 0:33 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:00 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.4, DAL 3.0 | VAN 3, DAL 5 |
| Total goals | 5.4 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 23.2, DAL 28.5 | VAN 29, DAL 16 |
| Win chance | DAL 60% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.6 | 2 | 1.00 | 3 | 32% | 2 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.6 | 0 | 0.83 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.4 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.0 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 3 | 30% | 2 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.0 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.8 | 4 | 0.63 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 3 | 0.85 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.7 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.9 | 4 | 0.15 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.7 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.