VAN beat FLA 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.49 expected goals to 2.10. Q. Hughes led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). Q. Hughes had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. K. Lankinen stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 11:42VANT. Blueger0.05 xG
- 1st 11:53FLAJ. Boqvist0.03 xG
- 2nd 6:30VANQ. Hughes0.03 xG
- 2nd 19:00FLAA. LundellPP0.12 xG
- OT 2:09VANJ. Miller0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.49 xGFLA 2.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Miller | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:50 | 3:12 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:23 | 2:22 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:31 | 2:17 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:05 |
| T. Blueger | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 12:38 | 0:10 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:33 |
| N. Aman | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:25 | 1:47 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 2:14 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:33 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:34 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:58 | 2:19 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 26:17 | 1:39 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:04 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:11 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| E. Brannstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 62:09 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:42 | 1:01 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:14 | 1:01 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:13 | 1:01 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:26 | 1:01 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2:06 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:32 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:35 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:06 | 1:01 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 3:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 62:09 | OT loss |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.7, FLA 3.1 | VAN 3, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 23.9, FLA 29.8 | VAN 33, FLA 28 |
| Win chance | FLA 57% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.9 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.6 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.2 | 3 | 0.97 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 5 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 5 | 0.73 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.0 | 9 | 0.88 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 4 | 0.59 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.8 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.3 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN E. Brannstrom | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| FLA A. Boqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN N. Aman | 0.5 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.