Game Recap: VAN 4, PIT 5, November 27, 2024

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Game Recap

VAN4

FinalWed, Nov 27, 2024Every game that night

PIT5

PIT beat VAN 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 2.89 expected goals to 1.57. B. Rust led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Rust had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. T. Jarry stopped 25 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	1	1	2	4
PIT	4	1	0	5

1st 3:59PITB. Lizotte0.07 xG
1st 8:52VANA. Räty0.10 xG
1st 12:53PITR. Rakell0.14 xG
1st 15:14PITK. HayesPP0.29 xG
1st 17:41PITB. Rust0.14 xG
2nd 3:40PITB. Rust0.07 xG
2nd 13:40VANP. Suter0.03 xG
3rd 0:40VANQ. Hughes0.14 xG
3rd 18:14VANE. Pettersson0.03 xG

Team Stats

VANPIT

29Shots on goal23

1.57Expected goals2.89

56Shot attempts50

215v5 shots on goal16

0/1Power play1/4

32Hits11

10Blocked shots22

8Penalty minutes2

11Giveaways17

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.57 xGPIT 2.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN28 on goal, 4 scored

PIT23 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	17:17	1:01
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	19:41	1:11
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:09	0:59
A. Räty	C	1	0	1	1	4	1	+1	4	11:06	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	9:56	0:00
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	16:59	1:14
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	16:40	0:46
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	16:28	1:02
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	14:10	0:58
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:43	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	4	2	2	-1	0	12:59	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	9:14	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	1	2	3	3	0	1	+2	0	27:35	1:23
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	+2	0	25:50	0:49
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	17:34	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	17:30	0:00
E. Brannstrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:57	0:37
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	23	18	5	.783	57:48	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	2	1	3	7	2	0	+2	0	18:36	4:28
S. Crosby	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	+3	0	19:55	5:19
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	18:45	4:49
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	18:32	4:29
B. Lizotte	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	0	13:51	0:12
D. O'Connor	LW	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	12:16	0:02
K. Hayes	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	10:30	2:10
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:05	3:09
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:49	2:51
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	11:53	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:20	0:00
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	10:48	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	3	3	2	0	3	0	0	19:46	4:34
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-2	0	21:15	0:15
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	18:38	0:12
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	23:16	3:08
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	2	17:11	0:03
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:34	2:39

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	29	25	4	.862	60:00	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamArturs Silovs PIT Faces VAN, his team until Mar 202518 saves on 23
Old teamDrew O'Connor VAN Faces PIT, his team until Jan 20251 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.0, PIT 3.1	VAN 4, PIT 5
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	VAN 26.9, PIT 30.4	VAN 29, PIT 23
Win chance	PIT 52%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT S. Crosby	2.9	0	1.10	2	33%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.7	2	0.78	1	25%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	7	0.76	3	28%	2
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	1	0.68	1	26%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	2	0.71	3	18%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.3	1	0.90	1	28%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.2	2	0.92	2	30%	1
VAN Q. Hughes	2.1	3	0.89	3	11%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	3	0.62	0	26%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.0	1	0.54	0	20%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.0	0	0.54	0	14%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.9	2	0.68	0	26%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.8	0	0.57	0	20%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.8	0	0.39	0	15%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.8	2	0.39	1	17%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.7	3	0.43	1	19%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	2	0.52	1	8%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.3	1	0.41	0	13%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.3	2	0.45	0	18%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	0	0.25	0	14%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.2	0	0.38	1	5%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	4	0.40	0	11%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.2	3	0.29	1	11%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.1	0	0.29	0	4%	0
PIT M. Nieto	1.1	1	0.25	0	10%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.1	1	0.28	0	5%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	0	0.29	0	14%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	1.0	1	0.28	0	4%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.44	0	18%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.0	1	0.23	0	7%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	2	0.25	1	10%	1
VAN A. Räty	0.9	1	0.21	1	10%	1
PIT J. Ivany	0.8	1	0.12	0	4%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.7	1	0.13	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.6	1	0.08	1	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.