Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
VAN1
FinalTue, Oct 21, 2025Every game that night
PIT5

PIT beat VAN 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.48 expected goals to 2.90. J. Brazeau led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Silovs stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VAN1001
PIT1315
  1. 1st 1:18VANC. Garland0.08 xG
  2. 1st 11:39PITC. Dewar0.05 xG
  3. 2nd 14:21PITT. NovakPP0.09 xG
  4. 2nd 16:18PITS. Crosby0.11 xG
  5. 2nd 17:29PITA. Mantha0.66 xG
  6. 3rd 5:56PITJ. BrazeauPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

VANPIT
24Shots on goal26
2.90Expected goals4.48
69Shot attempts65
165v5 shots on goal17
0/3Power play2/5
26Hits18
20Blocked shots17
8Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways16
2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.90 xGPIT 4.48 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdVAN goal, 1:18PIT goal, 11:39PIT goal, 14:21PIT goal, 16:18PIT goal, 17:29PIT goal, 5:56

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN24 on goal, 1 scored
PIT26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GarlandRW101201+1019:514:58
E. PetterssonC011211+1016:564:47
K. SherwoodLW000141-1020:282:54
E. KaneLW000312-1217:202:37
A. RätyC000020-1017:010:00
J. DeBruskLW000110+1013:504:49
D. O'ConnorLW000100-2213:080:00
A. BainsLW0000100012:281:01
L. KarlssonC000211-1012:191:11
M. SassonC000111-1011:400:19
N. AmanC000111-1010:320:00
J. LaBateC000262-109:320:00
F. HronekD0110220022:521:24
Q. HughesD000200-1025:415:59
T. MyersD0000030021:040:00
M. PetterssonD000112-1217:540:00
E. PetterssonD000231-1016:230:00
P. JosephD000312-1212:010:01
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Lankinen26215.80859:48Loss
T. Demko000–0:00

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. BrazeauRW123220+1011:502:34
A. ManthaRW112200+1013:332:06
R. RakellRW011100+1017:544:35
S. CrosbyC101100+1017:184:34
E. MalkinC011410+1216:385:06
N. AcciariC0111210016:060:54
C. DewarC1013410014:240:55
T. NovakC1013000012:213:47
B. RustRW000300+1018:464:30
B. LizotteC0000200017:150:55
B. KindelC0000020013:213:44
F. HallanderC0003000211:401:06
K. LetangD0222110017:022:20
P. WotherspoonD011012+2022:241:15
E. KarlssonD000001+2022:334:52
C. JonesD0000330017:590:47
H. BrunickeD0001250016:340:59
R. SheaD0000010216:301:01
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Silovs24231.95859:52Win
T. Jarry000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1E. Kane14:23K. Sherwood14:16A. Räty15:06
Line 2A. Bains10:18L. Karlsson11:08M. Sasson10:22
Line 3J. LaBate9:32N. Aman10:32D. O'Connor10:42
Line 4C. Garland9:33E. Pettersson9:29J. DeBrusk7:32
Pair 1Q. Hughes19:30F. Hronek16:07
Pair 2T. Myers16:01E. Pettersson12:42
Pair 3M. Pettersson13:40P. Joseph11:27

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby12:44R. Rakell12:26B. Rust12:02
Line 2N. Acciari12:25B. Lizotte13:21C. Dewar11:01
Line 3E. Malkin11:12A. Mantha11:22J. Brazeau9:09
Line 4B. Kindel9:37T. Novak8:29F. Hallander9:27
Pair 1C. Jones14:38H. Brunicke15:27
Pair 2P. Wotherspoon17:35E. Karlsson14:26
Pair 3K. Letang13:06R. Shea13:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamArturs Silovs PIT Faces VAN, his team until Mar 202523 saves on 24, the win
  • Old teamDrew O'Connor VAN Faces PIT, his team until Jan 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVAN 3.1, PIT 3.1VAN 1, PIT 5
Total goals6.16
Shots on goalVAN 25.7, PIT 27.6VAN 24, PIT 26
Win chanceVAN 50%PIT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
PIT B. Rust2.630.83030%0
VAN Q. Hughes2.621.06015%0
VAN C. Garland2.520.73125%1
PIT S. Crosby2.411.03131%1
VAN E. Kane2.430.56026%0
VAN J. DeBrusk2.310.66029%0
PIT R. Rakell2.210.73126%0
VAN K. Sherwood2.010.58023%0
PIT E. Karlsson1.900.61015%0
PIT E. Malkin1.840.75123%0
PIT B. Kindel1.800.35016%0
VAN E. Pettersson1.820.83128%0
PIT K. Letang1.720.44212%0
PIT A. Mantha1.520.52220%1
VAN F. Hronek1.400.5117%0
VAN T. Myers1.400.3406%0
PIT T. Novak1.430.43117%1
VAN D. O'Connor1.310.32014%0
PIT C. Dewar1.330.28111%1
PIT J. Brazeau1.220.34316%1
VAN L. Karlsson1.220.24010%0
VAN M. Sasson1.110.30014%0
VAN A. Räty1.100.33016%0
PIT B. Lizotte1.100.34015%0
PIT N. Acciari1.010.19110%0
VAN P. Joseph1.030.1804%0
VAN M. Pettersson1.010.3404%0
PIT F. Hallander0.930.28012%0
PIT P. Wotherspoon0.900.2013%0
PIT H. Brunicke0.910.2308%0
PIT C. Jones0.900.1905%0
PIT R. Shea0.700.2006%0
VAN J. LaBate0.720.2109%0
VAN E. Pettersson0.620.1204%0
VAN A. Bains0.600.1608%0
VAN N. Aman0.610.2107%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.