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Game Recap
VAN1
TBL4
TBL beat VAN 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.53 expected goals to 3.25. B. Point led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 3:55TBLN. Kucherov0.15 xG
- 2nd 7:43TBLB. Point0.07 xG
- 3rd 0:39TBLA. Cirelli0.35 xG
- 3rd 4:14VANC. GarlandPP0.68 xG
- 3rd 18:14TBLB. HagelEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
VANTBL
27Shots on goal27
3.25Expected goals4.53
62Shot attempts58
215v5 shots on goal24
1/3Power play0/5
23Hits13
15Blocked shots19
14Penalty minutes8
10Giveaways12
8Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 3.25 xGTBL 4.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garland | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:07 | 2:07 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:46 | 4:23 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 16:26 | 3:00 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:15 | 4:24 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:09 | 3:16 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 1:32 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 1:06 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:59 | 1:45 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:05 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 26:29 | 4:31 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:24 | 1:34 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 6 | 20:00 | 0:02 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:25 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Silovs | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 59:21 | Loss |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Point | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:13 | 5:07 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:50 | 3:49 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:20 | 3:26 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:31 | 3:58 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:28 | 6:09 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:01 | 4:38 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 2:27 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:46 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:48 | 4:46 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:33 | 3:43 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 22:16 | 4:52 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 3.0, TBL 3.2 | VAN 1, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 25.6, TBL 27.7 | VAN 27, TBL 27 |
| Win chance | TBL 54% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.4 | 4 | 1.56 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.1 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.8 | 4 | 1.05 | 2 | 38% | 1 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.7 | 4 | 1.15 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.7 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.6 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.5 | 0 | 0.65 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.5 | 3 | 0.98 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.3 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 2 | 0.86 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.2 | 3 | 0.97 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.9 | 3 | 0.49 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.7 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 3 | 0.56 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL C. Sheary | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.