Game Recap: VAN 6, TBL 2, November 16, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN6

FinalSun, Nov 16, 2025Every game that night

TBL2

VAN beat TBL 6-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.70 expected goals to 3.97. TBL outshot VAN 30 to 18. Q. Hughes led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). M. Crozier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. K. Lankinen stopped 28 of 30.

Team Stats

VANTBL

18Shots on goal30

1.70Expected goals3.97

36Shot attempts60

135v5 shots on goal23

2/3Power play0/2

28Hits18

10Blocked shots8

33Penalty minutes33

12Giveaways16

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.70 xGTBL 3.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN17 on goal, 5 scored

TBL30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	19:52	2:22
M. MacEachern	LW	1	1	2	1	3	0	+2	12	13:19	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	18:48	2:20
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:41	2:18
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	17:17	2:15
D. O'Connor	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:03	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	+1	10	12:56	0:30
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:28	0:33
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:58	0:28
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	12:11	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	10:50	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	5	4:21	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	4	4	4	0	0	+1	2	23:48	2:23
F. Hronek	D	0	2	2	0	3	1	+1	0	21:23	0:26
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	22:43	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	21:16	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	14:56	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:40	0:25

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
J. Patera	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	18:36	3:22
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	18:24	3:24
N. Kucherov	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-2	0	18:16	3:16
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	15:54	0:33
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:59	0:36
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:38	0:44
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	17:14	3:26
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	2	2	3	-1	0	15:18	0:00
B. Katchouk	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	12:45	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	10:41	0:34
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16	10:14	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	9:15	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	5	21:56	3:30
E. Cernak	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:23	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	22:02	0:01
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	18:40	0:23
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	18:24	0:11
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	17	12	5	.706	58:17	Loss
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1E. Kane17:24E. Pettersson15:11C. Garland4:21

Line 2B. Boeser12:45K. Sherwood12:42M. Sasson13:28

Line 3J. DeBrusk13:17D. O'Connor14:53A. Räty11:13

Line 4M. MacEachern13:19L. Reichel10:50L. Karlsson12:26

Pair 1Q. Hughes20:57F. Hronek18:48

Pair 2T. Myers18:35M. Pettersson17:19

Pair 3E. Pettersson13:42T. Willander13:45

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde15:16Z. Girgensons13:15O. Bjorkstrand13:20

Line 2N. Kucherov13:45B. Point13:59G. Goncalves16:26

Line 3J. Guentzel12:35B. Hagel12:55B. Katchouk12:15

Line 4S. Sabourin10:14C. Douglas9:15J. Finley9:37

Pair 1D. Raddysh17:11J. Moser20:16

Pair 2E. Cernak15:46C. D'Astous17:02

Pair 3E. Lilleberg15:45M. Crozier16:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.0, TBL 3.3	VAN 6, TBL 2
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	VAN 25.7, TBL 27.4	VAN 18, TBL 30
Win chance	TBL 56%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	1	1.53	1	36%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	3	1.10	1	38%	1
VAN E. Kane	2.9	0	0.58	0	28%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.7	4	0.92	4	15%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.4	0	0.69	0	25%	0
TBL B. Point	2.4	2	1.01	1	38%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	2	0.57	1	28%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.1	5	0.79	1	25%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.0	1	0.58	1	25%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	3	0.68	1	29%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	0	0.65	0	22%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	1	0.84	2	29%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	3	0.49	0	15%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	0	0.45	2	8%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.4	3	0.43	1	9%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.3	1	0.32	1	14%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.3	0	0.26	1	5%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	2	0.24	0	13%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.2	1	0.36	0	16%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.1	5	0.19	0	3%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.1	2	0.24	1	9%	1
TBL B. Katchouk	1.1	0	0.22	0	9%	0
VAN L. Reichel	1.0	0	0.29	0	11%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	1	0.27	0	6%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.0	1	0.40	0	13%	0
TBL J. Finley	1.0	0	0.27	0	10%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	0	0.25	0	13%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	1	0.30	1	4%	1
TBL S. Sabourin	0.9	1	0.30	0	10%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.23	1	4%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	1	0.36	0	6%	0
VAN M. MacEachern	0.9	1	0.21	2	7%	1
VAN T. Willander	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	1	0.12	0	3%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	1	0.21	0	3%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.5	0	0.18	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.