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Game Recap
VAN0
TOR5
TOR beat VAN 5-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.67 expected goals to 3.24. W. Nylander led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Woll stopped 29 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 8:03TORM. MaccelliPP0.15 xG
- 1st 16:31TORM. Domi0.09 xG
- 1st 19:40TORW. Nylander0.20 xG
- 2nd 13:07TORJ. Tavares0.27 xG
- 3rd 19:46TORN. RobertsonPP0.13 xG
Team Stats
VANTOR
29Shots on goal24
3.24Expected goals2.67
70Shot attempts43
205v5 shots on goal16
0/6Power play2/4
19Hits15
10Blocked shots20
15Penalty minutes15
17Giveaways16
7Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 3.24 xGTOR 2.67 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:54 | 7:52 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 7:50 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 18:56 | 6:59 |
| E. Kane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:49 | 4:20 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 | 7:22 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:51 | 3:07 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:13 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:13 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:46 | 0:20 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 3:27 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:08 | 0:16 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:19 | 0:34 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:57 | 4:47 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:29 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 19:49 | 0:41 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 5:55 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:12 | 3:55 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Demko | 6 | 3 | 3 | .500 | 20:00 | Loss |
| K. Lankinen | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 40:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:16 | 2:57 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:28 | 3:10 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:25 | 3:03 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 2:44 |
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:26 | 1:42 |
| M. Domi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 10:51 | 1:29 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 2:46 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:55 |
| E. Cowan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:10 | 2:20 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 20:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | +2 | 0 | 20:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:33 | 3:05 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:11 | 3:21 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:58 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 29 | 29 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Hildeby | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VAN
Line 1D. Kampf12:00D. O'Connor11:29K. Sherwood9:43
Line 3E. Kane13:26N. Hoglander9:45A. Räty8:59
Line 4L. Karlsson7:59J. DeBrusk7:58E. Pettersson10:19
Pair 1M. Pettersson15:13F. Hronek15:14
Pair 3E. Pettersson13:03T. Willander10:26
TOR
Line 1J. Tavares10:44W. Nylander10:19M. Maccelli11:22
Line 2A. Matthews12:22M. Knies11:02M. Domi9:22
Line 3N. Robertson10:36E. Cowan10:46N. Roy9:26
Line 4S. Laughton10:22S. Lorentz9:42B. McMann10:07
Pair 1T. Stecher16:10S. Benoit15:35
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson14:58J. McCabe11:17
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 3.1, TOR 3.4 | VAN 0, TOR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 27.9, TOR 27.3 | VAN 29, TOR 24 |
| Win chance | TOR 56% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.8 | 5 | 1.16 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.5 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 2.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.4 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.3 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 2.2 | 1 | 0.98 | 3 | 33% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.0 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.6 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR E. Cowan | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR M. Maccelli | 1.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.5 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR N. Roy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR T. Stecher | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN Z. Buium | 1.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. Kampf | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 0.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.