Game Recap: VAN 2, UTA 6, February 2, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN2

FinalMon, Feb 2, 2026Every game that night

UTA6

UTA beat VAN 6-2, with the chances close: 2.33 expected goals to 2.20. N. Schmaltz scored three for UTA. E. Kane had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. K. Vejmelka stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	1	1	0	2
UTA	2	3	1	6

1st 3:34UTAN. Schmaltz0.06 xG
1st 7:04VANL. Ohgren0.19 xG
1st 7:37UTAN. Schmaltz0.16 xG
2nd 8:45UTAM. SergachevPP0.05 xG
2nd 12:16UTAL. Crouse0.17 xG
2nd 16:05UTAJ. Peterka0.11 xG
2nd 18:49VANT. Blueger0.18 xG
3rd 12:22UTAN. Schmaltz0.12 xG

Team Stats

VANUTA

24Shots on goal19

2.20Expected goals2.33

43Shot attempts45

215v5 shots on goal16

0/4Power play1/2

21Hits13

10Blocked shots9

14Penalty minutes16

19Giveaways13

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.20 xGUTA 2.33 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN23 on goal, 2 scored

UTA18 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Garland	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	18:37	4:15
T. Blueger	C	1	1	2	2	4	0	+2	0	16:50	1:42
L. Ohgren	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:53	4:11
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	5	4	0	-1	12	18:44	3:10
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:58	3:15
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:56	0:13
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	15:49	3:59
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	15:17	0:08
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:21	1:59
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	13:52	3:16
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	12:03	3:09
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	7:36	1:55
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	0	17:59	0:04
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:58	0:25
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	20:49	3:28
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	0	18:45	0:09
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:59	4:27
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:18	0:15

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	19	13	6	.684	60:00	Loss
N. Tolopilo	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	3	1	4	3	0	2	+4	0	19:34	1:16
L. Crouse	LW	1	1	2	3	3	0	+3	0	18:35	1:00
C. Keller	RW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+3	0	15:44	1:32
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:14	0:44
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	2	16:27	1:35
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:21	0:00
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	0	12:35	1:36
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:05	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:38	0:41
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	12:08	0:40
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:48	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12	8:29	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	3	3	0	0	1	+4	0	21:50	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	2	23:50	1:42
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:57	0:34
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	0	20:07	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	19:11	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	24	22	2	.917	59:27	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1T. Blueger13:52C. Garland13:12L. Ohgren13:08

Line 2E. Kane15:34E. Pettersson11:50J. DeBrusk14:43

Line 3D. Kampf14:59L. Karlsson10:28F. Chytil5:26

Line 4D. O'Connor15:00M. Sasson10:52J. Lekkerimäki8:29

Pair 1E. Pettersson17:53F. Hronek16:19

Pair 2T. Myers18:59P. Joseph16:03

Pair 3M. Pettersson15:49T. Willander13:19

UTA

Line 1K. Yamamoto13:45J. Peterka16:57B. Hayton13:26

Line 2N. Schmaltz14:35C. Keller13:32L. Crouse13:23

Line 3M. Carcone11:28J. McBain11:55D. Guenther10:36

Line 4K. Stenlund10:29B. Tanev8:48L. O'Brien8:29

Pair 1M. Sergachev18:31S. Durzi14:59

Pair 2J. Marino18:00N. Schmidt16:40

Pair 3I. Cole14:47N. DeSimone15:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.0, UTA 3.6	VAN 2, UTA 6
Total goals	6.6	8
Shots on goal	VAN 25.4, UTA 29.9	VAN 24, UTA 19
Win chance	UTA 61%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.1	3	0.93	1	32%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.5	4	1.07	2	31%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	3	0.97	4	28%	3
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	0	0.51	0	24%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.1	5	0.46	0	22%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.0	1	0.42	0	18%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.0	1	0.78	1	27%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	2.0	1	0.76	1	15%	1
UTA L. Crouse	2.0	3	0.59	2	25%	1
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	1	0.54	1	18%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.9	1	0.49	0	21%	0
VAN C. Garland	1.8	1	0.47	2	18%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.7	1	0.50	0	19%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	2	0.71	0	25%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.6	0	0.48	1	11%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	2	0.50	0	8%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.4	0	0.44	0	15%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	2	0.33	0	15%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.4	2	0.25	1	11%	1
VAN T. Blueger	1.3	2	0.34	2	11%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.2	1	0.21	0	4%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	0	0.33	0	14%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	0	0.34	0	8%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.1	0	0.30	0	14%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.0	1	0.36	1	14%	0
VAN D. Kampf	1.0	1	0.25	0	10%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.0	0	0.34	0	7%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	0	0.16	0	6%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	3	0.26	1	4%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.9	0	0.23	0	14%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.9	1	0.20	0	6%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.9	0	0.14	0	3%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	0	0.41	3	6%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.23	0	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	1	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.