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Game Recap
VAN1
VGK3
VGK beat VAN 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.69 expected goals to 2.56. B. Howden led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). V. Olofsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Hill stopped 33 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 6:22VANJ. DeBrusk0.13 xG
- 2nd 11:02VGKI. Barbashev0.23 xG
- 3rd 0:18VGKB. Saad0.19 xG
- 3rd 19:29VGKT. HertlEN0.70 xG
Team Stats
VANVGK
34Shots on goal35
2.56Expected goals4.69
70Shot attempts72
255v5 shots on goal28
0/2Power play0/3
34Hits10
17Blocked shots19
6Penalty minutes8
10Giveaways16
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.56 xGVGK 4.69 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 2:13 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 2:40 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:11 | 2:42 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:48 | 2:39 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:28 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:21 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 1:48 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:49 | 1:18 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| N. Aman | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 27:33 | 2:58 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:53 | 1:02 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 57:09 | Loss |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 4:53 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:58 | 1:08 |
| B. Saad | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:07 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:08 | 1:11 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:48 | 4:51 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 4:06 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:02 | 4:47 |
| R. Lavoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 1:44 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 24:25 | 1:44 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:53 | 4:16 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:03 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:59 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.4, VGK 3.0 | VAN 1, VGK 3 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 22.7, VGK 29.2 | VAN 34, VGK 35 |
| Win chance | VGK 61% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.5 | 1 | 1.13 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.8 | 5 | 0.65 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN F. Chytil | 2.4 | 6 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.3 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.1 | 3 | 0.99 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| VAN C. Garland | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.7 | 4 | 0.70 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.5 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.4 | 5 | 0.44 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 5 | 0.36 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.4 | 5 | 0.40 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK R. Lavoie | 1.0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN N. Aman | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.