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Game Recap
VAN2
VGK5
VGK beat VAN 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.61 expected goals to 1.42. VGK outshot VAN 31 to 23. J. Eichel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Dorofeyev had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. A. Schmid stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| VGK | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
- 2nd 5:09VGKJ. Eichel0.09 xG
- 2nd 6:34VGKC. Reinhardt0.27 xG
- 2nd 7:11VANE. Pettersson0.11 xG
- 2nd 7:39VGKI. Barbashev0.12 xG
- 2nd 19:51VANP. Joseph0.03 xG
- 3rd 2:31VGKP. Dorofeyev0.16 xG
- 3rd 3:31VGKA. Holtz0.31 xG
Team Stats
VANVGK
23Shots on goal31
1.42Expected goals3.61
44Shot attempts53
215v5 shots on goal27
0/1Power play0/1
21Hits18
9Blocked shots11
2Penalty minutes2
18Giveaways20
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 1.42 xGVGK 3.61 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:00 | 1:08 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:55 |
| E. Kane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 1:06 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:52 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 1:04 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:46 | 1:05 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:54 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:56 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:06 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:48 | 0:06 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:11 | 1:04 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:50 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 60:00 | Loss |
| N. Tolopilo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:07 | 1:55 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:16 | 1:53 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:44 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:55 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:10 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:11 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 1:44 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Uchacz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:05 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:50 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:16 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:07 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VAN
Line 1C. Garland15:58L. Ohgren15:54T. Blueger16:04
Line 2E. Kane15:25D. O'Connor14:45E. Pettersson14:01
Line 3J. DeBrusk12:04D. Kampf14:46L. Karlsson12:41
Line 4M. Sasson12:22A. Räty12:01J. Lekkerimäki12:01
Pair 1M. Pettersson21:39T. Willander19:07
Pair 2E. Pettersson21:19F. Hronek15:10
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev15:34J. Eichel16:06M. Stone14:25
Line 2M. Marner14:19P. Dorofeyev16:01R. Smith12:32
Line 3B. Bowman12:39C. Reinhardt13:03K. Uchacz11:37
Line 4T. Hertl14:34K. Kolesar12:17A. Holtz14:09
Pair 1S. Theodore23:17J. Lauzon21:50
Pair 2N. Hanifin21:24R. Andersson18:50
Pair 3B. Hutton13:20K. Korczak14:03
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.8, VGK 3.7 | VAN 2, VGK 5 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 23.6, VGK 30.5 | VAN 23, VGK 31 |
| Win chance | VGK 65% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.4 | 5 | 1.32 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.8 | 7 | 0.77 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.5 | 0 | 0.87 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.2 | 3 | 1.19 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.2 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 2.1 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 2.0 | 1 | 1.22 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.9 | 0 | 0.70 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 1.7 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.6 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.4 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.3 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN D. Kampf | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 0.9 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN P. Joseph | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.7 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.6 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.