Game Recap: VAN 2, VGK 4, March 30, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN2

FinalMon, Mar 30, 2026Every game that night

VGK4

VGK beat VAN 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.66 expected goals to 1.46. VGK outshot VAN 34 to 24. R. Smith had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Hill stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	1	1	0	2
VGK	0	3	1	4

1st 12:19VANE. Kane0.18 xG
2nd 7:48VGKR. Andersson0.58 xG
2nd 12:17VANB. BoeserPP0.09 xG
2nd 17:17VGKS. Theodore0.15 xG
2nd 18:34VGKR. Smith0.14 xG
3rd 18:50VGKC. SmithEN0.29 xG

Team Stats

VANVGK

24Shots on goal34

1.46Expected goals3.66

31Shot attempts66

185v5 shots on goal31

1/1Power play0/2

25Hits33

15Blocked shots4

11Penalty minutes9

6Giveaways10

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.46 xGVGK 3.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN22 on goal, 2 scored

VGK34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	4	2	1	-1	0	18:12	0:23
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	3	3	1	-2	0	17:36	0:23
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	16:53	0:23
E. Kane	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	14:42	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	5	18:14	0:00
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:50	0:23
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	16:43	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:14	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	14:54	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:08	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:53	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5:19	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	28:00	0:23
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	25:22	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	22:05	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	20:24	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	2	13:53	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	2	10:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	33	30	3	.909	58:44	Loss
N. Tolopilo	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	20:07	2:21
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	2	7	0	+1	0	17:41	1:36
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	+2	0	15:05	2:20
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+2	0	13:10	0:00
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	1	7	0	+1	0	9:55	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	8:29	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	22:35	3:01
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:19	2:46
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	19:45	3:15
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	15:43	1:05
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	5	12:29	1:39
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	10:16	0:00
S. Theodore	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	22:35	1:11
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	21:38	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:53	0:03
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:29	0:43
J. Lauzon	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	16:40	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	24	22	2	.917	59:51	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1D. O'Connor15:39M. Rossi16:23B. Boeser14:33

Line 2E. Kane14:42J. DeBrusk15:10T. Blueger15:40

Line 3L. Karlsson15:53L. Ohgren14:33E. Pettersson14:58

Line 4A. Räty9:54N. Hoglander8:53C. Douglas5:18

Pair 1M. Pettersson22:57T. Willander21:02

Pair 2F. Hronek23:48Z. Buium19:08

Pair 3V. Mancini10:44E. Pettersson11:45

VGK

Line 1M. Stone17:23I. Barbashev16:05M. Marner16:57

Line 2P. Dorofeyev16:30B. Howden14:38J. Eichel19:02

Line 3R. Smith12:55T. Hertl12:02C. Sissons10:04

Line 4K. Kolesar9:37C. Smith9:22N. Dowd7:49

Pair 1B. McNabb20:49S. Theodore21:12

Pair 2N. Hanifin18:43R. Andersson17:54

Pair 3K. Korczak13:48J. Lauzon16:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.5, VGK 3.5	VAN 2, VGK 4
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	VAN 21.6, VGK 29.7	VAN 24, VGK 34
Win chance	VGK 66%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.6	3	1.38	0	35%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.0	3	0.88	0	36%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	4	0.81	1	28%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.2	1	1.31	0	31%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.2	0	1.20	1	32%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.0	5	0.44	1	21%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	1.9	1	0.46	1	22%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.9	3	0.62	1	26%	1
VGK R. Andersson	1.9	3	0.48	1	12%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.8	3	0.42	0	19%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.7	2	0.70	1	12%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.7	2	0.71	1	23%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.6	2	0.43	1	9%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.6	2	0.49	0	18%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	1	0.33	0	15%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.5	4	0.67	1	23%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	1	0.53	1	8%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.3	1	0.58	0	20%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.3	1	0.37	0	12%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	2	0.28	1	6%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.3	5	0.43	1	16%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.2	1	0.44	0	19%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.2	2	0.29	0	11%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	1	0.18	1	4%	0
VGK C. Smith	1.0	1	0.21	1	9%	1
VAN N. Hoglander	0.9	1	0.27	0	12%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.9	0	0.25	0	11%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	0	0.31	0	6%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.8	1	0.31	0	6%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	1	0.28	0	10%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.7	0	0.27	1	11%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.25	0	3%	0
VAN C. Douglas	0.7	0	0.09	0	5%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.15	0	4%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.6	1	0.21	0	3%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.