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Game Recap
VAN1
WSH2
WSH beat VAN 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.05 expected goals to 3.53. VAN outshot WSH 31 to 18. P. Dubois led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Thompson stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 19:27WSHP. Dubois0.22 xG
- 2nd 19:23VANC. GarlandPP0.65 xG
- OT 4:19WSHP. Dubois0.33 xG
Team Stats
VANWSH
31Shots on goal18
3.53Expected goals3.05
62Shot attempts60
245v5 shots on goal11
1/4Power play0/2
27Hits20
18Blocked shots13
10Penalty minutes14
9Giveaways12
10Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 3.53 xGWSH 3.05 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garland | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 5:27 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:23 | 1:14 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:48 | 5:25 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 | 1:19 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 5:50 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 2:37 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 4:38 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:16 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 1:25 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 1:40 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 27:13 | 3:32 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:48 | 2:12 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19:17 | 1:33 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:16 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:16 | 0:16 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 63:53 | OT loss |
| T. Demko | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dubois | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 17:43 | 1:16 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:34 | 1:21 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 2:44 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 19:16 | 2:40 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 3:57 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 1:20 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:02 | 0:00 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:03 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 24:02 | 2:39 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:30 | 2:50 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 1:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 64:19 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.9, WSH 3.2 | VAN 1, WSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 24.7, WSH 27.3 | VAN 31, WSH 18 |
| Win chance | WSH 55% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.0 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.5 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.4 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.4 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.3 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.0 | 3 | 0.93 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.0 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 0 | 0.67 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.8 | 3 | 0.73 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 0 | 0.88 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.6 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 2 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.