Game Recap: VAN 4, WSH 3, October 19, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN4

FinalSun, Oct 19, 2025Every game that night

WSH3

VAN beat WSH 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.20 expected goals to 3.97. T. Myers led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. McMichael had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. T. Demko stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	3	1	0	4
WSH	0	1	2	3

1st 0:59VANE. Pettersson0.13 xG
1st 17:11VANT. Myers0.44 xG
1st 17:52VANK. SherwoodPP0.14 xG
2nd 4:54VANT. Blueger0.20 xG
2nd 13:42WSHR. LeonardPP0.21 xG
3rd 9:01WSHJ. Chychrun0.14 xG
3rd 17:46WSHJ. Carlson0.04 xG

Team Stats

VANWSH

24Shots on goal31

3.20Expected goals3.97

37Shot attempts84

165v5 shots on goal25

1/4Power play1/4

22Hits28

23Blocked shots1

13Penalty minutes11

17Giveaways18

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 3.20 xGWSH 3.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN24 on goal, 4 scored

WSH31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Garland	RW	0	2	2	4	1	1	+1	0	22:20	5:49
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	23:15	5:21
T. Blueger	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	18:42	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	18:37	5:24
E. Kane	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+2	2	16:33	1:01
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:40	5:29
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	15:14	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:41	0:58
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:15	0:44
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	10:11	0:39
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	5:02	0:00
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4:07	0:00
T. Myers	D	1	1	2	3	2	2	+1	0	26:12	0:03
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	25:00	5:56
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	21:55	1:16
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	+1	0	19:26	0:25
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:25	0:20
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	5	6:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	0	2	2	1	7	0	-2	0	20:57	4:26
D. Strome	C	0	2	2	2	2	1	+1	2	19:42	4:34
R. Leonard	RW	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	0	14:04	2:34
H. Lapierre	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:33	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	21:36	2:58
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:24	7:06
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-3	0	15:53	2:56
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	+1	0	13:02	0:01
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	11:07	0:11
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	11:01	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	10:32	0:03
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:38	1:35
J. Carlson	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	-2	0	23:39	4:06
J. Chychrun	D	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	23:19	3:17
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	22:02	3:37
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	17:41	0:01
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:20	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	24	20	4	.833	57:40	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1T. Blueger14:41K. Sherwood13:42D. O'Connor11:40

Line 2L. Karlsson12:17M. Sasson12:19A. Bains9:32

Line 3E. Pettersson11:30J. DeBrusk10:45C. Garland10:45

Line 4E. Kane14:00F. Chytil5:02J. Lekkerimäki4:07

Pair 1Q. Hughes18:51F. Hronek16:56

Pair 2T. Myers19:32E. Pettersson12:03

Pair 3M. Pettersson12:56V. Mancini6:52

WSH

Line 1A. Ovechkin12:24D. Strome12:59A. Beauvillier12:17

Line 2C. McMichael12:26T. Wilson11:14A. Protas13:45

Line 3N. Dowd8:06B. Duhaime7:01J. Sourdif10:45

Line 4H. Lapierre11:33R. Leonard10:53S. Milano7:03

Pair 1R. Sandin16:38M. Roy13:12

Pair 2J. Chychrun17:04T. Riemsdyk12:40

Pair 3J. Carlson13:55M. Fehérváry13:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Beauvillier WSH Faces VAN, his team until Nov 20234 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.9, WSH 3.2	VAN 4, WSH 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	VAN 24.3, WSH 26.8	VAN 24, WSH 31
Win chance	WSH 56%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.1	1	0.89	0	36%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.5	1	0.88	1	14%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.5	1	0.49	0	21%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.3	3	0.57	1	20%	1
VAN E. Kane	2.3	2	0.50	1	24%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.2	4	0.61	2	22%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	2	0.59	0	27%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	1	0.75	2	28%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	0	0.75	0	23%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	3	0.61	1	13%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.9	4	0.36	0	15%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	2	0.87	2	26%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.7	6	0.51	0	20%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.7	1	0.45	1	19%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	1.7	2	0.73	1	25%	1
WSH R. Leonard	1.6	3	0.21	1	12%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	0	0.42	0	7%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.3	0	0.21	0	12%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.2	2	0.28	0	12%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	3	0.26	2	5%	1
WSH M. Roy	1.1	3	0.30	0	6%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.1	0	0.26	0	13%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	2	0.29	1	9%	1
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	0	0.25	0	12%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.32	0	16%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.29	0	8%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.0	2	0.20	0	9%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.0	1	0.25	0	12%	0
WSH S. Milano	1.0	1	0.38	0	15%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	2	0.36	1	7%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.28	0	4%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.7	0	0.17	0	4%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	0	0.20	0	3%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.7	1	0.29	1	9%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.6	0	0.10	0	4%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.5	2	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.