VGK beat ANA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.10 expected goals to 3.22. VGK outshot ANA 39 to 24. S. Theodore led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). N. Roy had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. A. Hill stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| ANA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 17:39ANAB. McGinn0.52 xG
- 1st 19:11VGKN. Roy0.18 xG
- 2nd 6:43VGKT. HertlPP0.29 xG
- 3rd 4:29VGKP. Dorofeyev0.13 xG
- 3rd 19:46ANAF. Vatrano0.10 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 4.10 xGANA 3.22 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:21 | 3:11 |
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 2:19 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 1:59 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 2:28 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:22 | 1:33 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 1:58 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:08 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:57 |
| G. Denisenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:27 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:44 | 2:28 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:44 | 1:44 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:09 | 1:47 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:43 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 15:02 | 2:09 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:38 | 3:48 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:22 | 2:10 |
| B. McGinn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 3:46 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 3:50 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 3:46 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:00 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 2:14 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 2:12 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 2:14 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:02 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20:00 | 0:03 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:02 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 3:44 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.6, ANA 2.6 | VGK 3, ANA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 32.3, ANA 27.1 | VGK 39, ANA 24 |
| Win chance | VGK 65% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.7 | 5 | 1.21 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.2 | 6 | 0.64 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 4 | 0.69 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.3 | 3 | 0.82 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.3 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 2.1 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.0 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.9 | 5 | 0.66 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.8 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.7 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.7 | 5 | 0.61 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.6 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA B. McGinn | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK G. Denisenko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA U. Vaakanainen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.