Game Recap: VGK 4, BOS 3, February 8, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK4

FinalSat, Feb 8, 2025Every game that night

BOS3

VGK beat BOS 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.51 expected goals to 2.37. VGK outshot BOS 38 to 24. M. Stone led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Howden had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. I. Samsonov stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	1	1	2	4
BOS	2	1	0	3

1st 3:17BOSB. Marchand0.25 xG
1st 13:49BOSN. Zadorov0.03 xG
1st 15:09VGKM. StonePP0.10 xG
2nd 15:07BOSM. Geekie0.14 xG
2nd 19:26VGKZ. Whitecloud0.04 xG
3rd 4:54VGKP. Dorofeyev0.12 xG
3rd 18:50VGKT. HertlPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

VGKBOS

38Shots on goal24

3.51Expected goals2.37

73Shot attempts51

345v5 shots on goal21

2/4Power play0/1

6Hits21

13Blocked shots17

9Penalty minutes15

19Giveaways15

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.51 xGBOS 2.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK38 on goal, 4 scored

BOS24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Stone	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	-1	0	22:15	4:21
J. Eichel	C	0	2	2	5	0	0	+1	0	20:44	4:28
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	4	18:39	3:47
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	18:23	3:36
B. Saad	LW	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	16:24	1:42
B. Howden	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	16:20	0:00
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	19:01	0:47
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	13:35	1:09
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	5	12:15	0:00
J. Rondbjerg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:07	0:00
R. Lavoie	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:14	0:17
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:33	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	2	2	1	0	3	-1	0	21:58	4:22
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:28	1:08
Z. Whitecloud	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	17:46	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:42	1:53
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:14	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Samsonov	24	21	3	.875	60:00	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	5	2	0	+1	2	23:04	2:00
B. Marchand	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	18:38	0:54
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:05	0:11
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	4	1	2	+2	0	20:31	1:44
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	19:42	1:44
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	18:36	1:06
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:20	0:16
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	14:15	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	5	9:18	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	7:35	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	7:09	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:33	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	1	1	2	2	2	1	+2	0	25:55	0:05
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	25:24	1:09
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	19:46	0:51
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:39	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	2	18:17	0:00
M. Callahan	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	38	34	4	.895	59:14	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownNoah Hanifin VGK Plays in his hometown1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.9, BOS 2.5	VGK 4, BOS 3
Total goals	5.4	7
Shots on goal	VGK 30.0, BOS 25.2	VGK 38, BOS 24
Win chance	VGK 55%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.0	5	1.19	1	42%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.6	5	1.07	2	31%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	3	0.60	1	27%	1
BOS B. Marchand	2.5	2	0.78	1	27%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.3	3	0.62	1	23%	1
VGK M. Stone	2.1	2	0.90	2	26%	1
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	3	0.59	1	23%	1
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	1	0.68	2	9%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.9	1	0.71	0	22%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	4	0.61	0	23%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.8	0	0.46	0	22%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.7	2	0.66	0	23%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.7	3	0.42	0	7%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.7	3	0.42	1	19%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	1	0.49	0	10%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.6	2	0.38	1	8%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.5	3	0.51	0	20%	0
BOS O. Wahlstrom	1.4	0	0.24	0	11%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	2	0.28	2	9%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.3	5	0.32	1	16%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.3	2	0.39	0	14%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.3	1	0.34	0	16%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	1	0.25	0	4%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.2	2	0.16	0	4%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.1	0	0.44	0	12%	0
VGK J. Rondbjerg	1.1	1	0.14	0	6%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	0	0.30	0	12%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	1	0.20	0	9%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	1	0.21	0	4%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	0	0.39	0	7%	0
VGK R. Lavoie	0.9	2	0.11	0	7%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	1	0.18	1	5%	1
BOS C. Koepke	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.6	0	0.17	0	9%	0
BOS M. Callahan	0.6	0	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.