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Game Recap
VGK2
CAR3
CAR beat VGK 3-2, with the chances close: 3.55 expected goals to 3.21. S. Jarvis led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Theodore had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. P. Kochetkov stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CAR | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 4:22VGKT. Hertl0.08 xG
- 2nd 11:57CARS. Jarvis0.57 xG
- 3rd 0:46CARJ. Blake0.01 xG
- 3rd 6:09CARS. Jarvis0.16 xG
- 3rd 9:52VGKS. TheodorePP0.03 xG
Team Stats
VGKCAR
31Shots on goal28
3.21Expected goals3.55
61Shot attempts70
195v5 shots on goal21
1/3Power play0/4
19Hits18
22Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways24
9Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.21 xGCAR 3.55 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:24 | 3:32 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 3:25 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:28 | 3:27 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:03 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:08 | 3:33 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:56 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:40 | 1:04 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 23:17 | 0:57 |
| S. Theodore | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:33 | 3:22 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 2 | 19:35 | 1:06 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:14 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 57:08 | Loss |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 19:16 | 4:16 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:28 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:04 | 3:57 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:28 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 2:35 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 4:22 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 3:20 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 3:12 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:16 | 2:12 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 2:30 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:10 |
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:12 | 1:46 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:35 | 4:07 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 3:12 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 2.9, CAR 3.0 | VGK 2, CAR 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 26.7, CAR 31.0 | VGK 31, CAR 28 |
| Win chance | CAR 53% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.0 | 4 | 0.99 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 3 | 0.97 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.4 | 3 | 0.77 | 2 | 28% | 2 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.4 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.9 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.8 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.6 | 5 | 0.57 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.3 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR J. Jaaska | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.