Game Recap: VGK 6, CAR 3, October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK6

FinalTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

CAR3

VGK beat CAR 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.43 expected goals to 1.82. VGK outshot CAR 35 to 24. J. Eichel led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). P. Dorofeyev had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Schmid stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	2	0	4	6
CAR	1	1	1	3

1st 3:46CARA. SvechnikovPP0.03 xG
1st 6:27VGKP. Dorofeyev0.04 xG
1st 18:03VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.10 xG
2nd 12:07CARJ. Martinook0.19 xG
3rd 2:31CARL. Stankoven0.19 xG
3rd 6:10VGKB. Howden0.20 xG
3rd 15:01VGKJ. Eichel0.18 xG
3rd 17:36VGKJ. Eichel0.20 xG
3rd 19:38VGKT. HertlEN0.64 xG

Team Stats

VGKCAR

35Shots on goal24

5.43Expected goals1.82

65Shot attempts55

285v5 shots on goal18

1/4Power play1/1

22Hits17

16Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes10

21Giveaways19

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 5.43 xGCAR 1.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK35 on goal, 6 scored

CAR24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	2	1	3	6	0	1	+1	0	21:27	5:39
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	21:14	6:20
T. Hertl	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	19:41	5:39
I. Barbashev	LW	0	2	2	1	1	1	+1	0	15:49	0:43
P. Dorofeyev	RW	2	0	2	9	0	0	+1	0	15:32	5:32
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	2	5	1	0	2	14:06	0:00
W. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:02	0:44
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	12:56	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	1	1	1	4	1	+1	0	12:53	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	+1	0	13:39	0:43
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:30	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:03	0:40
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	0	26:18	5:39
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	21:43	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+3	0	21:28	0:03
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	2	19:59	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:10	0:01
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	11:39	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	24	21	3	.875	59:49	Win
C. Lindbom	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:03	0:02
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	16:11	0:00
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	15:43	0:00
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	4	15:00	0:02
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	1	2	2	-1	0	14:55	0:00
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:29	0:02
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	15:53	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	14:57	0:02
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:46	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:31	0:00
B. Nadeau	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:21	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:58	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	25:45	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	4	3	3	0	0	27:33	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	-1	2	24:04	0:00
D. Fensore	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-2	0	19:22	0:00
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:19	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:19	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	34	29	5	.853	58:29	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev14:34J. Eichel13:56A. Holtz12:45

Line 2B. Howden13:34C. Reinhardt12:56K. Kolesar11:57

Line 3M. Marner13:37T. Hertl12:10P. Dorofeyev9:57

Line 4R. Smith10:23W. Karlsson11:23B. Saad12:26

Pair 1J. Lauzon19:05K. Korczak20:33

Pair 2B. McNabb18:51S. Theodore18:00

Pair 3Z. Whitecloud12:02B. Hutton11:21

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven15:27J. Blake15:03T. Hall14:33

Line 2S. Jarvis14:27S. Aho12:59N. Ehlers13:37

Line 3J. Staal12:47A. Svechnikov12:40J. Martinook10:52

Line 4J. Kotkaniemi8:53B. Nadeau9:21M. Jankowski9:04

Pair 1J. Chatfield21:38A. Nikishin21:21

Pair 2S. Walker19:26D. Fensore18:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayJack Eichel VGK Turns 29 that day2 G, 1 A, 6 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.8, CAR 3.0	VGK 6, CAR 3
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	VGK 25.1, CAR 29.5	VGK 35, CAR 24
Win chance	CAR 53%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	2.9	6	0.98	3	29%	2
CAR N. Ehlers	2.8	0	0.83	0	28%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.7	9	0.58	2	29%	2
CAR S. Jarvis	2.7	2	0.87	0	31%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.6	1	0.99	1	34%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.2	2	0.29	0	9%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	1	0.52	1	20%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	2	0.49	1	19%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	2	0.63	2	24%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.0	4	0.63	1	23%	1
VGK W. Karlsson	1.8	1	0.50	1	19%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	0	0.50	0	19%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.7	1	0.59	1	8%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.7	1	1.01	2	25%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.4	1	0.34	0	16%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	1	0.39	0	15%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.3	1	0.38	0	15%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	1	0.23	1	8%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	1	0.40	1	14%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.3	1	0.51	2	19%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.2	0	0.46	0	8%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.2	5	0.22	0	11%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.2	4	0.31	0	5%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.1	2	0.34	1	16%	1
VGK B. Hutton	1.1	2	0.18	0	4%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	1	0.30	0	11%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	0	0.26	0	13%	0
VGK B. McNabb	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.8	1	0.21	0	2%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.8	0	0.12	0	3%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	1	0.22	1	9%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.7	1	0.17	0	5%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.7	0	0.15	1	9%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.