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Game Recap
VGK5
CAR4
VGK beat CAR 5-4, with the chances close: 3.32 expected goals to 2.69. S. Theodore led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Hart stopped 25 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| CAR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 0:25CARN. Ehlers0.14 xG
- 1st 12:08CARN. Ehlers0.18 xG
- 1st 13:28VGKS. Theodore0.05 xG
- 2nd 0:30VGKI. Barbashev0.11 xG
- 2nd 4:35VGKW. Karlsson0.21 xG
- 2nd 12:42CARJ. Staal0.14 xG
- 3rd 1:21VGKB. Howden0.14 xG
- 3rd 11:19CARS. Gostisbehere0.10 xG
- 3rd 16:36VGKT. Hertl0.17 xG
Team Stats
VGKCAR
23Shots on goal29
3.32Expected goals2.69
49Shot attempts61
205v5 shots on goal27
0/3Power play0/2
35Hits26
16Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways15
3Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.32 xGCAR 2.69 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:51 | 1:00 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 | 4:45 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:33 | 5:03 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:05 | 1:11 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 1:09 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:10 | 4:47 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:02 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:04 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:19 | 4:46 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:59 | 4:47 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:43 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:00 | 1:17 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 21:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 23:18 | 1:08 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:01 |
| D. Coghlan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Ehlers | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:16 | 2:19 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 1:26 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:40 | 2:01 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 2:11 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 1:48 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:24 | 2:02 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 2:01 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:59 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 19:24 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:51 | 1:46 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:30 | 2:14 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:19 | 0:13 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 23 | 18 | 5 | .783 | 58:14 | Loss |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
Line 1W. Karlsson14:56B. Howden12:47M. Marner14:21
Line 2I. Barbashev15:22J. Eichel13:07P. Dorofeyev12:33
Line 3M. Stone10:21T. Hertl10:23C. Sissons11:54
Line 4N. Dowd10:29C. Smith10:02K. Kolesar6:43
Pair 1R. Andersson20:38N. Hanifin19:18
Pair 2B. McNabb17:12S. Theodore19:55
Pair 3J. Lauzon10:16D. Coghlan8:23
CAR
Line 1L. Stankoven12:42J. Blake12:34T. Hall11:40
Line 2J. Staal13:40J. Martinook13:11N. Ehlers12:29
Line 3A. Svechnikov12:20S. Aho11:38S. Jarvis12:05
Line 4E. Robinson9:55W. Carrier10:18M. Jankowski10:03
Pair 2J. Slavin17:53J. Chatfield17:44
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere11:41A. Nikishin11:48
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 2.7, CAR 3.3 | VGK 5, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 23.1, CAR 31.0 | VGK 23, CAR 29 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 2.7 | 3 | 0.98 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 2 | 0.85 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.4 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.1 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.0 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 2.0 | 1 | 0.97 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.5 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.5 | 2 | 0.53 | 3 | 10% | 1 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| VGK D. Coghlan | 1.2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 3 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK N. Dowd | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK C. Smith | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 28 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.