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Game Recap
VGK3
CAR4
CAR beat VGK 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.79 expected goals to 3.50. B. Howden led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). I. Barbashev had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. F. Andersen stopped 23 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 13:33VGKB. Howden0.24 xG
- 2nd 7:23VGKB. Howden0.25 xG
- 3rd 10:20CARL. Stankoven0.10 xG
- 3rd 12:46CARM. Jankowski0.13 xG
- 3rd 15:25CARJ. StaalPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 18:39VGKM. Stone0.51 xG
- OT 3:56CARS. JarvisPP0.10 xG
Team Stats
VGKCAR
26Shots on goal26
3.50Expected goals2.79
44Shot attempts78
235v5 shots on goal21
0/4Power play2/4
25Hits46
25Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes8
12Giveaways16
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.50 xGCAR 2.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:37 | 6:28 |
| B. Howden | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:35 | 1:27 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:57 | 6:15 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 1:57 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:19 | 4:22 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:22 | 6:23 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 6:32 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:07 | 1:38 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:07 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 24:15 | 0:39 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 28:30 | 2:46 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 1:39 |
| D. Coghlan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:39 | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:37 | 2:36 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:33 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:04 | 2:29 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:54 | 1:11 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 2:36 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 3:39 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 2:27 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:58 | 2:31 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 2:38 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:25 | 0:14 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:09 | 0:14 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 21:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 2:12 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 63:56 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
Line 1W. Karlsson15:53M. Marner14:51B. Howden13:16
Line 2I. Barbashev14:48P. Dorofeyev13:05J. Eichel13:53
Line 3M. Stone12:56C. Sissons12:53T. Hertl11:39
Line 4N. Dowd10:01K. Kolesar9:07C. Smith9:06
Pair 1N. Hanifin21:59R. Andersson18:05
Pair 2S. Theodore23:09J. Lauzon17:22
CAR
Line 1T. Hall14:39J. Blake14:01L. Stankoven14:24
Line 2S. Aho14:17A. Svechnikov12:52J. Martinook14:11
Line 4M. Jankowski7:29E. Robinson8:31W. Carrier8:39
Pair 1J. Slavin19:38J. Chatfield19:02
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere13:17A. Nikishin14:02
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 2.7, CAR 3.3 | VGK 3, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 22.9, CAR 31.0 | VGK 26, CAR 26 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 2.6 | 0 | 0.99 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 4 | 0.84 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.4 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.3 | 0 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.2 | 4 | 0.84 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.0 | 4 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 3 | 0.98 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 0 | 0.58 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.5 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.5 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 5 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 3 | 0.44 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK D. Coghlan | 1.1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| VGK N. Dowd | 0.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK C. Smith | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.5 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.