Game Recap: VGK 2, CAR 4, June 11, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK2

FinalThu, Jun 11, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

CAR4

CAR beat VGK 4-2, with the chances close: 3.67 expected goals to 3.73. N. Ehlers led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). B. Bussi stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	1	0	1	2
CAR	1	2	1	4

1st 6:52VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.16 xG
1st 11:46CARJ. Staal0.07 xG
2nd 11:58CARA. SvechnikovPP0.07 xG
2nd 17:51CARS. Aho0.10 xG
3rd 11:08CARA. SvechnikovPP0.25 xG
3rd 13:49VGKP. Dorofeyev0.23 xG

Team Stats

VGKCAR

25Shots on goal24

3.73Expected goals3.67

62Shot attempts60

195v5 shots on goal16

1/3Power play2/5

32Hits34

18Blocked shots12

10Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways17

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.73 xGCAR 3.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK24 on goal, 2 scored

CAR23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	2	2	1	2	4	+1	2	23:31	4:28
P. Dorofeyev	RW	2	0	2	3	1	0	+1	0	17:53	4:28
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	13:26	4:28
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	4	21:47	4:28
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	21:38	4:25
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	15:05	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	14:32	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:43	0:00
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	2	6	0	-1	0	12:03	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:39	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:54	0:00
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:43	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	0	23:42	1:41
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:23	0:19
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	21:52	0:03
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	20:29	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	12:36	0:00
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	11:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	24	20	4	.833	57:07	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	0	3	3	0	1	0	0	4	17:47	4:02
A. Svechnikov	RW	2	0	2	3	2	0	+1	0	16:23	4:27
S. Jarvis	RW	0	1	1	4	3	1	0	0	19:51	4:21
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:01	4:18
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	3	5	1	0	0	17:22	2:02
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	14:29	0:00
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:46	3:06
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:19	3:10
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	14:55	3:06
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	9:48	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:19	1:18
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:13	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	15:14	4:21
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	20:05	0:14
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	21:55	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:04	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	21:00	0:05
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:01	3:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone16:13J. Eichel16:52M. Marner13:40

Line 2K. Kolesar9:54C. Smith11:03N. Dowd11:14

Line 3W. Karlsson8:43B. Howden11:37P. Dorofeyev12:45

Line 4T. Hertl8:45I. Barbashev11:51C. Sissons8:42

Pair 1R. Andersson18:47N. Hanifin18:49

Pair 2B. McNabb17:00S. Theodore18:11

Pair 3J. Lauzon10:17D. Coghlan11:17

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven14:40J. Blake13:09T. Hall11:49

Line 2N. Ehlers13:09S. Jarvis12:28J. Staal12:44

Line 3S. Aho11:55A. Svechnikov11:39J. Martinook12:13

Line 4W. Carrier9:48E. Robinson9:13M. Jankowski8:01

Pair 1S. Walker18:05K. Miller19:37

Pair 2J. Slavin18:20J. Chatfield18:03

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere10:53A. Nikishin9:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.8, CAR 3.4	VGK 2, CAR 4
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	VGK 23.3, CAR 31.0	VGK 25, CAR 24
Win chance	CAR 60%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.7	4	0.82	1	31%	0
VGK J. Eichel	2.7	1	1.01	2	28%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.6	0	0.92	3	31%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.4	1	0.62	0	25%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.4	3	0.64	2	30%	2
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	3	0.71	2	27%	2
CAR S. Aho	2.3	2	0.87	1	30%	1
CAR T. Hall	2.2	4	0.71	0	23%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.2	1	1.07	0	28%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	2	0.67	0	23%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.0	0	0.32	1	8%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.9	1	0.86	0	27%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.9	1	0.57	0	21%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.7	3	0.52	1	20%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.7	2	0.64	1	12%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.6	3	0.48	1	20%	1
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	0	0.39	1	16%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	2	0.31	0	6%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	1	0.29	0	7%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	2	0.60	0	21%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	0	0.55	2	10%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	0	0.46	0	9%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	3	0.38	0	9%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	3	0.48	0	22%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	1	0.31	0	14%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.2	1	0.33	0	6%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.1	1	0.14	0	3%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	1	0.23	0	9%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.0	0	0.24	0	6%	0
CAR W. Carrier	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	0	0.29	0	14%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.8	2	0.23	0	11%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.8	0	0.17	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.