Game Recap: VGK 3, CBJ 2, December 13, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK3

FinalSat, Dec 13, 2025Every game that night

CBJ2

VGK beat CBJ 3-2, with the chances close: 1.81 expected goals to 1.93. M. Marner led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). B. Hutton had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. C. Hart stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	1	2	3
CBJ	1	0	1	2

1st 7:02CBJC. Coyle0.10 xG
2nd 0:41VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.10 xG
3rd 4:49CBJE. Chinakhov0.09 xG
3rd 5:52VGKB. Hutton0.06 xG
3rd 13:13VGKB. McNabb0.06 xG

Team Stats

VGKCBJ

26Shots on goal30

1.81Expected goals1.93

61Shot attempts59

225v5 shots on goal26

1/3Power play0/4

15Hits15

20Blocked shots19

8Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways15

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 1.81 xGCBJ 1.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK26 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	3	3	1	1	1	+2	0	16:46	3:04
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	-2	0	20:48	3:28
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	11:04	2:57
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:14	3:00
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	15:26	1:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:24	3:25
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	5	4	0	0	14:36	1:25
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:13	0:57
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	13:39	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	13:18	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	13:10	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	12:09	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	22:43	1:21
B. McNabb	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	-1	4	20:24	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	17:30	0:00
B. Hutton	D	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	13:39	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	22:13	1:28
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	17:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	17:50	2:36
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	14:35	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	9:55	2:25
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	9:53	1:38
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:46	4:49
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	1	3	-2	0	18:42	4:04
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	17:58	4:20
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	17:26	4:12
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	-2	0	16:32	2:47
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:59	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	14:04	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	10:44	0:03
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	25:53	6:04
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	13:54	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	23:24	0:55
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	20:38	2:10
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	20:18	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	11:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	26	23	3	.885	58:52	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev14:26J. Eichel13:58M. Stone12:41

Line 2M. Marner10:55B. Howden12:10B. Bowman13:16

Line 3B. Saad13:12T. Hertl11:56P. Dorofeyev8:05

Line 4C. Sissons10:37K. Kolesar11:05C. Reinhardt13:18

Pair 1B. McNabb18:25S. Theodore18:02

Pair 2B. Hutton13:39K. Korczak16:10

Pair 3N. Hanifin17:01Z. Whitecloud14:04

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko13:57A. Fantilli14:34B. Jenner13:41

Line 2M. Wood12:51C. Sillinger13:07C. Coyle13:25

Line 3I. Lundestrom13:54D. Voronkov13:14S. Monahan11:59

Line 4B. Gaunce9:14E. Chinakhov8:15K. Johnson7:30

Pair 1D. Severson18:25I. Provorov19:31

Pair 2Z. Werenski17:46D. Mateychuk18:15

Pair 3B. Smith11:12D. Fabbro12:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.3, CBJ 2.8	VGK 3, CBJ 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	VGK 30.7, CBJ 27.1	VGK 26, CBJ 30
Win chance	VGK 58%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.6	1	1.20	1	33%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.2	2	0.80	1	16%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.1	3	0.70	1	33%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	3	0.75	0	31%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.7	0	0.76	0	29%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	3	0.76	0	29%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.3	3	1.02	0	28%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.2	4	0.68	1	11%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.2	2	0.45	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	0	0.60	0	25%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.9	2	0.69	0	22%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.9	1	0.36	0	17%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	1	1.11	3	28%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.8	3	0.45	0	21%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	2	0.42	1	14%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.6	0	0.54	0	18%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	0	0.63	0	23%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	3	0.38	0	8%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.6	1	0.36	0	18%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.6	0	0.45	0	21%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.4	0	0.43	1	16%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.3	4	0.50	1	18%	1
VGK B. Hutton	1.3	4	0.24	1	6%	1
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.2	0	0.22	0	11%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.2	2	0.24	1	11%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	0	0.33	0	8%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.25	1	5%	1
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.32	0	10%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	2	0.25	0	10%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	0	0.23	1	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	1	0.22	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.9	1	0.19	1	5%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	0	0.22	0	8%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	2	0.19	0	8%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.7	3	0.19	0	8%	0
CBJ B. Smith	0.7	1	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.