Game Recap: VGK 1, CBJ 2 (OT), October 24, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK1

Final/OTSat, Oct 24, 2026Every game that night

CBJ2

CBJ beat VGK 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.04 expected goals to 3.02. K. Johnson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Eichel had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. C. Talbot stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	1	0	0	0	1
CBJ	1	0	0	1	2

1st 11:51CBJD. Mateychuk0.30 xG
1st 17:13VGKT. Hertl0.51 xG
OT 0:59CBJA. FantilliPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

VGKCBJ

27Shots on goal20

3.02Expected goals2.04

50Shot attempts54

245v5 shots on goal15

0/1Power play1/3

22Hits26

17Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways15

9Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.02 xGCBJ 2.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK26 on goal, 1 scored

CBJ20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Bowman	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	16:36	0:44
T. Connelly	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	16:28	1:17
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	12:55	1:17
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	0	21:43	1:19
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	20:21	1:16
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	16:48	0:43
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:24	0:00
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:22	0:43
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:58	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	10:48	0:00
R. Lavoie	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:16	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:29	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	4	0	4	0	2	24:35	1:25
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	23:27	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	19:35	0:41
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	19:02	0:35
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	18:23	0:00
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	15:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	20	18	2	.900	60:59	OT loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Johnson	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	17:47	2:38
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	19:26	2:41
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	19:10	2:49
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	17:13	1:59
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	19:09	2:01
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:16	2:05
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:03	2:03
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:39	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	16:06	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	7:49	0:00
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	7:30	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:42	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	2	0	6	+1	0	21:39	1:22
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	28:15	3:23
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	25:47	1:55
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:24	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:25	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	27	26	1	.963	60:59	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone17:08J. Eichel18:15I. Barbashev14:39

Line 2B. Howden13:34W. Karlsson14:17A. Holtz9:29

Line 3N. Dowd10:04R. Lavoie10:16M. Gatcomb11:58

Line 4B. Bowman15:11T. Hertl11:33T. Connelly15:11

Pair 1B. McNabb19:29S. Theodore20:04

Pair 2R. Andersson18:33J. Lauzon17:14

Pair 3N. Hanifin17:18D. Coghlan15:47

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier15:40M. Knies16:58C. Coyle15:19

Line 2V. Nichushkin14:32A. Fantilli16:17K. Johnson15:07

Line 3S. Monahan15:06C. Sillinger16:06C. Garland15:00

Line 4R. Lomberg7:49L. Belluz7:30D. Voronkov6:42

Pair 1D. Severson22:35Z. Werenski23:26

Pair 2J. Christiansen18:20D. Mateychuk19:36

Pair 3E. Gudbranson11:38C. Soucy12:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	+130	-165	3	Under
VGK J. Eichel	2.5	-130	+105	6	Over
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	+144	-165	1	Under
VGK A. Holtz	1.5	-155	+120	1	Under
VGK B. Howden	1.5	+105	-125	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	+110	-130	2	Over
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	+115	-155	2	Over
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	-110	-110	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	-130	+110	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	1.5	-160	+130	1	Under
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	-125	+110	2	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	+125	-145	1	Under
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	-128	+120	4	Over
VGK T. Connelly	1.5	-140	+110	1	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.5	-130	+105	2	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	1.5	-138	+115	1	Under

2 of 33 overs hit (6%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
VGK A. Holtz	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+425	-550	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+310	-475	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+300	-475	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
VGK D. Coghlan	0.5	+1500	-4000	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+900	-2000	1	Over
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.5	+3000	-4000	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+195	-225	0	Under
VGK J. Lauzon	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+300	-440	0	Under
CBJ L. Belluz	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
VGK M. Gatcomb	0.5	+850	-2500	0	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+525	-700	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+190	-250	0	Under
VGK N. Dowd	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+750	-900	0	Under
VGK R. Lavoie	0.5	+800	-1000	0	Under
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+340	-490	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+290	-450	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+235	-285	1	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+360	-450	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+400	-500	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+350	-550	0	Under

4 of 19 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+215	-255	1	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+320	-375	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+205	-220	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	-155	+125	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+190	-220	2	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+105	-120	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+205	-240	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+275	-300	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+120	-140	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+235	-290	1	Over
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+260	-300	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-130	+120	0	Under

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
VGK J. Eichel	1.5	+150	-190	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+160	-180	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+195	-265	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+105	-111	1	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+190	-190	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+180	-245	1	Over
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+145	-160	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+105	-110	2	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+200	-265	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	-190	+160	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+150	-160	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	-110	+105	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+115	-135	1	Over
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	-115	+100	1	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+135	-140	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+125	-135	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-190	+165	0	Under

2 of 15 overs hit (13%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+500	-700	1	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+340	-750	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+450	-550	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+140	-165	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+500	-600	1	Over
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+185	-210	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+190	-290	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+300	-300	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+260	-235	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+250	-375	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
VGK C. Hart	23.5	-105	-105	18	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
VGK B. McNabb	1.5	-165	+115	1	Under
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	+120	-170	3	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	1.5	-160	+115	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, CBJ 2.9	VGK 1, CBJ 2
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	VGK 26.9, CBJ 27.3	VGK 27, CBJ 20
Win chance	VGK 53%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.1	3	0.99	0	19%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	2	0.81	1	31%	1
VGK J. Eichel	2.5	6	1.04	0	28%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	1	0.65	1	24%	1
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.9	2	0.62	1	26%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.9	0	0.60	2	22%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.9	1	0.89	0	28%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.9	2	0.73	1	24%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.8	1	0.46	0	21%	0
VGK T. Connelly	1.8	1	0.52	1	19%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	4	0.60	0	14%	0
CBJ M. Knies	1.6	2	0.72	0	26%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.6	2	0.41	0	12%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.6	1	0.52	0	19%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.62	0	21%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.5	2	0.18	0	4%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	0	0.40	0	14%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.4	1	0.49	0	18%	0
VGK M. Gatcomb	1.4	1	0.22	0	12%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.4	2	0.38	0	15%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	0	0.46	0	21%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.3	1	0.43	1	15%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.3	2	0.38	1	11%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	1.3	1	0.35	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	0	0.45	0	9%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.2	1	0.29	0	12%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	2	0.32	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.1	0	0.31	0	14%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.1	1	0.16	0	5%	0
VGK R. Lavoie	1.1	1	0.17	0	8%	0
CBJ R. Lomberg	1.0	1	0.15	0	7%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.8	1	0.25	0	11%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	0.8	1	0.20	0	7%	0
CBJ C. Soucy	0.7	1	0.15	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.