Game Recap: VGK 3, CGY 2 (OT), April 5, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

VGK3

Final/OTSat, Apr 5, 2025Every game that night

CGY2

VGK beat CGY 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.83 expected goals to 1.40. VGK outshot CGY 34 to 23. S. Theodore led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). V. Olofsson had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Schmid stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	1	1	0	1	3
CGY	0	1	1	0	2

1st 18:39VGKP. Dorofeyev0.10 xG
2nd 9:57VGKR. Smith0.09 xG
2nd 19:52CGYJ. Hanley0.09 xG
3rd 0:43CGYM. Coronato0.02 xG
OT 4:31VGKR. Smith0.02 xG

Team Stats

VGKCGY

34Shots on goal23

2.83Expected goals1.40

55Shot attempts54

225v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play0/4

14Hits38

21Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways13

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.83 xGCGY 1.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK31 on goal, 3 scored

CGY23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Smith	RW	2	0	2	5	0	0	+1	0	16:13	0:47
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	16:18	2:36
B. Howden	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:02	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	14:06	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	9	0	0	+1	0	12:38	1:25
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	21:12	3:06
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	2	20:38	3:51
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:44	1:26
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	16:39	2:02
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	13:18	0:09
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	10:52	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	9:54	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	3	3	2	0	1	+3	0	22:41	1:37
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	22:59	0:07
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:09	2:23
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:56	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	18:59	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+2	4	18:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	23	21	2	.913	64:31	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	21:16	4:44
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:55	3:10
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	18:06	3:41
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:19	2:55
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	22:07	4:51
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	17:09	4:42
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	2	11	0	0	0	15:25	1:04
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:15	3:07
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:19	3:02
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:00	0:12
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:45	0:08
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	10:53	0:08
J. Hanley	D	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	0	24:14	0:14
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	+1	0	28:08	4:48
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	24:43	3:12
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	-2	2	20:50	0:02
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:16	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	34	31	3	.912	64:31	OT loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRasmus Andersson VGK First game back in Calgary, his team until Jan 20262 SOG
Old teamVictor Olofsson VGK First game back in Calgary, his team until Apr 20261 A, 9 SOG
Old teamNoah Hanifin VGK Faces CGY, his team until Mar 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.3, CGY 2.8	VGK 3, CGY 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	VGK 29.0, CGY 28.4	VGK 34, CGY 23
Win chance	VGK 57%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.4	0	0.85	1	31%	0
VGK J. Eichel	2.8	2	0.97	0	29%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.7	3	0.61	1	29%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	2	0.49	1	22%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	3	0.51	1	21%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	2	0.54	0	11%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	3	0.58	0	21%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.0	2	0.80	0	24%	0
CGY M. Backlund	1.9	1	0.38	1	15%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.9	2	0.83	0	25%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.8	0	0.51	0	18%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	3	0.39	0	17%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	2	0.40	0	10%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	2	0.63	3	8%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.7	2	0.45	1	21%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.7	1	0.47	0	9%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.6	1	0.41	0	6%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	5	0.46	2	17%	2
CGY M. Pospisil	1.5	2	0.34	0	10%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	1	0.46	0	21%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.5	9	0.42	1	21%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	1	0.62	0	22%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.4	0	0.43	0	16%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	1	0.39	1	18%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.3	0	0.29	0	12%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.2	0	0.18	0	5%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.2	2	0.23	0	11%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	0	0.22	0	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.1	1	0.23	0	6%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	0	0.29	0	12%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	1	0.24	0	4%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.14	0	7%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.8	0	0.15	0	4%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.8	3	0.15	1	3%	1
CGY K. Rooney	0.8	0	0.14	0	7%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.