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Game Recap
VGK5
CHI3
VGK beat CHI 5-3, with the chances close: 2.47 expected goals to 2.22. R. Donato scored three for CHI. A. Hill stopped 18 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| CHI | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 16:15CHIR. Donato0.04 xG
- 2nd 6:41VGKM. Stone0.06 xG
- 2nd 7:34VGKV. Olofsson0.28 xG
- 2nd 16:14CHIR. Donato0.05 xG
- 2nd 16:29CHIR. Donato0.13 xG
- 3rd 2:06VGKV. Olofsson0.07 xG
- 3rd 16:49VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 19:16VGKB. HowdenEN0.49 xG
Team Stats
VGKCHI
22Shots on goal21
2.47Expected goals2.22
47Shot attempts46
195v5 shots on goal20
1/2Power play0/1
18Hits19
13Blocked shots13
2Penalty minutes4
20Giveaways13
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 2.47 xGCHI 2.22 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:42 | 2:24 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:55 | 2:52 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:21 | 2:22 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:28 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:55 | 2:52 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:30 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:51 | 2:45 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:08 | 0:07 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Donato | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 1:32 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:28 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:32 | 1:27 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:33 | 1:32 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:28 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:20 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:40 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:15 | 0:33 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| E. Del Mastro | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:21 | 1:32 |
| K. Korchinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:28 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 58:15 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.8, CHI 2.5 | VGK 5, CHI 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 32.1, CHI 23.9 | VGK 22, CHI 21 |
| Win chance | VGK 69% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.0 | 0 | 1.12 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.8 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.5 | 4 | 0.73 | 3 | 26% | 3 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.2 | 0 | 0.73 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.66 | 3 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 3 | 0.96 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.9 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.8 | 4 | 0.45 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.6 | 4 | 0.47 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI J. Veleno | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI K. Korchinski | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI E. Mastro | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.