Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
VGK2
Final/OTSun, Jan 4, 2026Every game that night
CHI3

CHI beat VGK 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.24 expected goals to 2.75. T. Bertuzzi scored three for CHI. T. Bertuzzi had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. A. Soderblom stopped 13 of 15.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
VGK11002
CHI10113
  1. 1st 10:40VGKB. Saad0.20 xG
  2. 1st 12:38CHIT. Bertuzzi0.07 xG
  3. 2nd 0:43VGKM. Stone0.14 xG
  4. 3rd 11:36CHIT. Bertuzzi0.07 xG
  5. OT 1:18CHIT. Bertuzzi0.31 xG

Team Stats

VGKCHI
15Shots on goal20
2.75Expected goals2.24
41Shot attempts57
155v5 shots on goal13
0/1Power play0/2
34Hits15
19Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways16
2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.75 xGCHI 2.24 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdOTVGK goal, 10:40CHI goal, 12:38VGK goal, 0:43CHI goal, 11:36CHI goal, 1:18

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK15 on goal, 2 scored
CHI19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. EichelC011110-2021:401:35
M. StoneRW101212-1019:561:35
B. HowdenC011030+1013:290:27
B. SaadLW101100+1012:140:00
A. HoltzRW011122+1011:210:17
M. MarnerRW0000100019:351:45
P. DorofeyevRW000010-1017:151:33
I. BarbashevLW000120-1016:320:28
T. HertlC0001000016:141:32
C. SissonsC0003200013:170:25
K. KolesarRW0001600010:350:00
C. ReinhardtLW000150009:510:00
N. HanifinD011002-1023:370:15
K. KorczakD000201+1020:400:00
B. HuttonD0001050020:200:08
Z. WhitecloudD000013-1019:160:00
J. LauzonD000074+1218:210:00
J. MegnaD000020-1215:410:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Schmid20173.85061:18OT loss
C. Hart000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. BertuzziLW303501+3019:012:49
A. BurakovskyLW022110+2018:272:49
I. MikheyevRW0110000017:330:00
R. GreeneC011301+2214:441:07
R. DonatoC000110-2018:062:49
J. DickinsonC000011-1017:060:02
N. FolignoLW0000400016:091:11
T. TeravainenC0002010013:542:49
L. SlaggertLW0000100013:280:00
O. MooreC000000-1013:041:09
N. LardisLW000120-1011:331:11
C. DachC0002310011:230:00
A. LevshunovD011300+1023:392:49
A. VlasicD0110010021:130:00
L. CrevierD000011-1019:410:04
W. KaiserD0001000018:440:00
M. GrzelcykD0001000018:091:11
C. MurphyD000011+1016:090:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Soderblom15132.86761:09Win
S. Knight000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone16:19J. Eichel17:14I. Barbashev16:04
Line 2T. Hertl14:42P. Dorofeyev15:09M. Marner15:26
Line 3B. Saad12:14B. Howden12:05A. Holtz11:04
Line 4C. Sissons10:54C. Reinhardt9:42K. Kolesar10:26
Pair 1B. Hutton20:12N. Hanifin20:00
Pair 2K. Korczak18:55J. Lauzon17:16
Pair 3J. Megna14:41Z. Whitecloud16:52

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky14:45T. Bertuzzi15:34R. Greene13:28
Line 2J. Dickinson15:30I. Mikheyev15:27R. Donato15:08
Line 3N. Foligno14:58L. Slaggert13:02C. Dach11:23
Line 4N. Lardis10:22O. Moore11:06T. Teravainen10:37
Pair 1A. Vlasic18:46L. Crevier19:02
Pair 2W. Kaiser18:19A. Levshunov20:15
Pair 3C. Murphy14:35M. Grzelcyk16:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVGK 3.4, CHI 2.4VGK 2, CHI 3
Total goals5.85
Shots on goalVGK 29.6, CHI 22.9VGK 15, CHI 20
Win chanceVGK 65%CHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel3.411.21133%0
VGK P. Dorofeyev3.100.72033%0
VGK N. Hanifin2.500.62114%0
VGK T. Hertl2.410.72028%0
VGK M. Stone2.221.05130%1
VGK M. Marner2.001.19029%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.950.65327%3
CHI R. Donato1.910.59023%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.800.43121%0
VGK B. Saad1.710.37118%1
VGK B. Hutton1.610.3009%0
CHI N. Lardis1.510.27014%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.510.65023%0
CHI A. Burakovsky1.510.62219%0
VGK A. Holtz1.510.30115%0
CHI R. Greene1.430.35113%0
VGK B. Howden1.400.46121%0
CHI L. Crevier1.300.2206%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.330.4214%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.220.58019%0
VGK K. Korczak1.220.3506%0
CHI O. Moore1.100.35010%0
CHI N. Foligno1.100.37013%0
CHI J. Dickinson1.100.31014%0
VGK C. Sissons1.130.28011%0
CHI M. Grzelcyk1.010.2903%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.010.1906%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.000.1704%0
CHI C. Dach1.020.2109%0
CHI C. Murphy0.900.1704%0
VGK K. Kolesar0.910.26010%0
VGK Z. Whitecloud0.900.2307%0
CHI A. Vlasic0.900.2113%0
CHI L. Slaggert0.900.1808%0
VGK C. Reinhardt0.810.1808%0
VGK J. Megna0.700.1303%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.