Game Recap: VGK 1, COL 2 (SO), November 27, 2024

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Game Recap

VGK1

Final/SOWed, Nov 27, 2024Every game that night

COL2

COL beat VGK 2-1 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.57 expected goals to 1.57. COL outshot VGK 34 to 19. N. MacKinnon had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 4.1. A. Georgiev stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
VGK	0	1	0	0	1
COL	0	1	0	1	2

2nd 13:09VGKP. Dorofeyev0.06 xG
2nd 13:42COLV. Nichushkin0.13 xG

Team Stats

VGKCOL

19Shots on goal34

1.57Expected goals4.57

41Shot attempts88

165v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play0/2

10Hits10

28Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes2

21Giveaways23

3Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 1.57 xGCOL 4.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK19 on goal, 1 scored

COL34 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	18:16	0:42
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	2	17:16	1:23
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	23:06	1:23
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	20:28	0:37
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:58	1:18
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:36	1:18
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	2	1	4	-1	0	15:30	0:37
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:08	0:00
C. Burke	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:29	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	11:37	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:56	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	10:55	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	25:40	0:42
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	24:42	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	0	6	-1	0	24:12	1:18
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	23:06	0:42
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:36	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	34	33	1	.971	65:00	OT loss
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	22:47	3:15
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	10	0	1	+1	0	27:05	3:32
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	23:13	3:31
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:23	1:39
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:15	0:31
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:05	0:29
P. Kelly	C	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:31	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:29	0:28
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:25	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:43	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:10	0:00
C. Bradley	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:02	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	26:21	0:46
C. Makar	D	0	0	4	2	1	+1	2	26:21	3:28
S. Girard	D	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	22:42	0:29
J. Manson	D	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	20:50	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:23	0:00
O. Kylington	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	19	18	1	.947	64:53	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Roy COL Faces VGK, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.2, COL 3.4	VGK 1, COL 2
Total goals	6.6	3
Shots on goal	VGK 28.5, COL 31.4	VGK 19, COL 34
Win chance	COL 53%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	10	1.51	0	40%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	0	1.18	0	34%	0
COL M. Rantanen	2.8	2	1.16	0	38%	0
COL C. Makar	2.8	4	1.10	0	22%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	4	0.64	1	30%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.5	4	0.83	1	32%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	1	0.83	0	31%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.0	1	0.74	0	10%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	0	0.67	0	23%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.9	3	0.63	0	23%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.8	2	0.73	0	21%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.7	1	0.51	1	8%	0
COL M. Wood	1.7	1	0.27	0	12%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	0	0.57	0	10%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.7	1	0.57	0	19%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.6	1	0.50	0	10%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.70	1	23%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	3	0.34	0	8%	0
VGK C. Burke	1.4	2	0.24	0	12%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	2	0.38	0	18%	0
COL I. Ivan	1.3	0	0.35	0	15%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.3	2	0.32	0	14%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	0	0.30	0	5%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	0	0.31	0	12%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.2	1	0.33	0	13%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.2	0	0.36	0	14%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.22	0	10%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	1	0.39	0	6%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	0	0.18	0	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	2	0.21	0	10%	0
COL O. Kylington	1.0	0	0.24	0	6%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	0	0.26	0	3%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	0.8	2	0.26	0	11%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.7	1	0.25	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.