Game Recap: VGK 3, COL 2 (OT), April 11, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

VGK3

Final/OTSat, Apr 11, 2026Every game that night

COL2

VGK beat COL 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.82 expected goals to 3.47. C. Hart stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	1	1	0	1	3
COL	1	1	0	0	2

1st 9:17COLD. ToewsPP0.04 xG
1st 13:47VGKM. StonePP0.18 xG
2nd 2:09VGKP. Dorofeyev0.08 xG
2nd 10:56COLN. Blankenburg0.01 xG
OT 1:19VGKJ. Eichel0.13 xG

Team Stats

VGKCOL

29Shots on goal32

3.82Expected goals3.47

73Shot attempts63

245v5 shots on goal25

1/4Power play1/3

18Hits13

12Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways17

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.82 xGCOL 3.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK29 on goal, 3 scored

COL30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	20:44	4:28
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	20:30	4:21
M. Stone	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	19:19	4:09
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:11	4:05
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	16:32	1:37
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	15:14	4:30
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:11	1:32
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:45	1:52
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	12:09	0:10
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	11:47	0:06
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:41	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	10:12	0:08
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	11:49	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	25:51	2:01
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	21:25	0:32
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	20:08	1:29
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	18:43	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	15:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	32	30	2	.938	61:19	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	21:51	5:29
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	2	0	5	0	2	19:59	4:24
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	13:38	1:05
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	0	21:38	5:29
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	18:13	5:17
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:52	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:39	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	12:19	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:38	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	10:13	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:54	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	9:50	0:00
D. Toews	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	-1	0	26:54	5:08
N. Blankenburg	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	+1	0	14:06	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:37	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	21:46	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	18:52	0:21
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	11:46	0:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	29	26	3	.897	61:19	OT loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone13:07J. Eichel13:57M. Marner13:48

Line 2B. Howden14:18P. Dorofeyev13:06I. Barbashev14:55

Line 3B. Saad10:41T. Hertl10:44C. Sissons10:47

Line 4N. Dowd10:44C. Smith9:17K. Kolesar9:25

Pair 1R. Andersson20:36N. Hanifin19:08

Pair 2B. McNabb15:41S. Theodore18:05

Pair 3K. Korczak11:49J. Lauzon11:27

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon14:34G. Landeskog12:46A. Lehkonen14:17

Line 2B. Nelson12:54M. Necas16:00V. Nichushkin15:04

Line 3N. Roy12:33R. Colton10:13J. Kiviranta9:22

Line 4J. Drury9:49P. Kelly9:09L. O'Connor8:19

Pair 1D. Toews17:53S. Malinski19:08

Pair 2B. Burns17:09B. Kulak19:37

Pair 3N. Blankenburg13:13J. Manson9:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Roy COL Faces VGK, his team until May 20251 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.8, COL 3.4	VGK 3, COL 2
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	VGK 25.9, COL 29.1	VGK 29, COL 32
Win chance	COL 60%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	6	1.51	0	41%	0
VGK J. Eichel	2.8	4	0.90	1	27%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	4	0.58	1	28%	1
COL M. Necas	2.5	2	1.13	1	32%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.2	2	0.83	1	33%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	1	0.87	1	24%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.9	0	0.44	0	8%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.9	3	0.52	1	21%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.8	2	0.80	1	26%	1
COL G. Landeskog	1.8	2	0.67	0	25%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	1.8	2	0.62	0	26%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.8	1	0.61	0	26%	0
COL B. Burns	1.6	2	0.37	0	9%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	3	0.35	0	8%	0
COL R. Colton	1.5	1	0.32	0	14%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.50	1	19%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	3	0.36	0	7%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	2	0.52	1	10%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	1.4	1	0.31	0	5%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.3	2	0.46	0	7%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.3	1	0.25	0	13%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.2	0	0.35	0	17%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.1	1	0.21	0	4%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.21	0	4%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	1	0.33	0	14%	0
COL J. Drury	1.0	3	0.32	0	11%	0
COL N. Roy	0.9	0	0.33	1	13%	0
COL L. O'Connor	0.8	2	0.26	0	10%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.8	2	0.13	0	3%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.8	1	0.14	0	7%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.7	1	0.20	0	8%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.7	2	0.20	0	10%	0
COL N. Blankenburg	0.6	2	0.19	1	4%	1
VGK K. Korczak	0.5	1	0.13	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.